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mlb-pitching-leaders-using-my-stats | June | 2005 Articles

2005 Archives

MLB pitching leadersÖ using MY stats

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Below are the top 10 starting pitchers in a four categories that you don't see every day. In fact, you never see the first three, since I created/derived them. I thought today was a good day to share these because teams have played roughly 54 games each after two months, which translates to approximately 1/3 of the season. Four months to go! (To qualify to make these lists, a pitcher must have pitched at least one inning as a starter per team game. Only numbers as a starting pitcher are considered for these numbers; relief appearances are not included.)
Effectiveness .814 Pedro Martinez .783 Mike Hampton .778 Jake Peavy .776 Roger Clemens .775 Roy Halladay .769 Johan Santana .768 Mark Buehrle .766 Mark Redman .764 Carlos Silva .760 Brett Myers --- .707 MLB AVERAGE --- .783 Mike Hampton .722 Kyle Davies .714 John Thomson .707 Tim Hudson .699 Horacio Ramirez .699 John Smoltz Ind. Effectiveness .840 Johan Santana .829 Pedro Martinez .796 Jake Peavy .776 Roger Clemens .775 Javier Vazquez .759 Dontrelle Willis .735 Brad Radke .732 Erik Bedard .730 Roy Halladay .726 Matt Morris --- .604 MLB AVERAGE --- .700 Kyle Davies .674 John Smoltz .667 John Thomson .560 Tim Hudson .524 Mike Hampton .408 Horacio Ramirez Adjusted WHIP 0.84 Pedro Martinez 0.92 Roger Clemens 1.02 Johan Santana 1.05 Mark Buehrle 1.08 Jake Peavy 1.10 Mark Prior 1.10 Dontrelle Willis 1.12 Mike Hampton 1.13 Mark Redman 1.14 Roy Halladay --- 1.46 MLB AVERAGE --- 1.12 Mike Hampton 1.40 John Thomson 1.48 John Smoltz 1.48 Tim Hudson 1.50 Kyle Davies 1.67 Horacio Ramirez OPS Against .464 Roger Clemens .468 Pedro Martinez .574 Erik Bedard .576 Dontrelle Willis .584 Roy Halladay .587 Mark Redman .599 Jake Peavy .601 Mark Buehrle .604 Carlos Zambrano .612 Kenny Rogers --- .674 MLB AVERAGE --- .618 Mike Hampton .657 John Thomson .700 John Smoltz .705 Kyle Davies .755 Tim Hudson .836 Horacio Ramirez
Pedro Martinez is holding the #1 or #2 spot in all four categories. Roger Clemens is also in the top four in each category, Jake Peavy in the top 7 in each, and Roy Halladay is the only other qualified starter to make each top 10. Martinez settled down considerably in May while maintaining his lights-out stuff, earning his second straight pitcher of the month award, in my opinion, despite actually winning zero. Halladay also improved considerably with a couple of complete-game shutouts, and Clemens and Peavy were consistent with their previous month's totals to stay near the top. April's aces Dontrelle Willis and Jon Garland slipped a little, but they're still among the top 20 (out of 107) in all four categories. Rookie Watch: Toronto's Gustavo Chacin (pronounced "Shah-seen") has slipped a little while Arizona's Brad Halsey has more or less maintained his pace. But Texas's Chris Young has emerged as the rookie pitcher to watch for the long haul, with 51 K's to only 16 BB's in 65.1 IP. Atlanta's Kyle Davies is another one to watch, although he does not yet qualify for the leaderboards. But so far, Davies has posted a 0.77 ERA in his first four MLB starts with 21 K in 23.1 IP -- he's only 21! What the above stats mean: Effectiveness is a measure of a pitcher's effectiveness dependent on both the defense behind him and the ballparks he has played in. It is simply the ratio of outs per batter. EFF = 3*IP/TBF Independent Effectiveness is a measure of a pitcher's effectiveness independent of the defense behind him. That is, all hits and outs that involve the defense at all are removed from the pitcher's line, and all that's left are the hits (home runs) and outs (strikeouts) that are only between the pitcher and the hitter. And, of course, unintentional walks and hit-batters. IEFF = K/(HR+K+HBP+BB-IBB) Adjusted WHIP actually has very little to do with WHIP, but I haven't come up with a better name yet. I have added several stats to the numerator: hit-by-pitches (which makes sense), wild pitches and balks (to reflect wildness), and stolen bases against and sacrifice flies (to reflect the tendency to allow baserunners to reach and to advance). It's not meant to be sabermetric; so don't treat it that way! But put it in your own spreadsheet and see how the leaderboard lines up. aWHIP = (H+BB+HBP+WP+BK+SB+SF)/IP OPS Against should be self-explanatory, but inexplicably no one uses it. I think it should be used as often as OPS is used to exploit good hitters. It needs to be park- and defense-adjusted to be sabermetrically effective, but it's very useful as it is. I'll take another look at these same leaderboards after approximately 81 games have been played (half-way point!), around July 5, and again every 27 games or so until the season is over.
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