11 April 2007

Before we know it this blog may become the official Jeff Francoeur Watch. Anyway, having posted on this subject just yesterday, something that Kristi wrote caught my eye:

Francoeur disappointed me by hitting into a double play with the bases loaded in the bottom of the first. Next time up he struck out. Just when I was ready to really blast him on here tonight, he hit a key double play in the fifth to get in two runs. On top of that, he hit it to the opposite field. Then in the eighth, he hit a 3-run homer! Heís restored my faith that he really is getting smarter at the plate. If he continues like this, Iíll be happy to eat any previous negative thoughts Iíve had about him.

I'm not ready to be as generous as Kristi this early in the season. He's actually been fairly typical so far -- he started off slowly and in the last few games has made some great contact slamming a couple of homers over the wall. There has been a lot of chat as to whether he is showing more patience at the plate. Well, is he? Take a look at the data so far (remember we have severe sample size issues this early in the season, but let's push on in any case). Pitches per PA

• 2005: 3.41
• 2006: 3.32
• 2007: 3.52

Swinging strikes

• 2005: 24%
• 2006: 22%
• 2007: 25%

Percentage of pitches swung at

• 2005: 60%
• 2006: 61%
• 2007: 65%

Contact rate

• 2005: 75%
• 2006: 72%
• 2007: 61%

First pitch swing rate

• 2005: 47%
• 2006: 52%
• 2007: 42%

The data show a slight tendency to take a couple extra pitches and to be a bit more selective about swinging at the first pitch. However, there is nothing to suggest a radical change at the plate. This shouldn't be a surprise given that he still has to draw a walk this season. We'll keep on tracking these stats as the season progresses but I remained unconvinced that he has altered his approach. I'll be looking for an OBP of over .330 (not that impressive) this year to be convinced that he has.