18 March 2007

Check out my Hardball Times article today that looks at how each division will shake out based on the THT player forecasts that are available in the Preseason annual. Here is how I think the NL East will shake out:

Team† †† †† †† Win† †† Loss† † % Chance of winning
New York† †† † 85† †† †77† †† †36%
Atlanta† †† †† 82† †† †80† †† †24%
Philadelphia† †81† †† †81† †† †20%
Florida† †† †† 80† †† †82† †† †17%
Washington† †† 70† †† †92† †† †3%

I have the Mets taking the division with 85 games though the Braves are certainly within reach. Remember that these standing reflect talent only and once we add lady luck into the equation the spread could look much wider. The bottom line is that the Braves have a good shot this year. The Mets' rotation is weak and although Hampton going down doesn't help our cause if Hudson bounces back we'll have an okay rotation. Add in a potentially NL leading bullpen (when could you last say that about the Braves); and the most prolific offensive team on the Senior Circuit and you have a real contender. Be in no doubt -- the Braves will be in the mix.