26 March 2007

Mets righty Duaner Sanchez fractured his right shoulder and will be out until August at the earliest -- in reality that means the whole season. So what does it mean in the race for the East? The THT projects Sanchez to be worth 1.2 WAR over 70IP. In old money that is a 3.64 ERA, which is nothing to be sniffed at. What it means is the Aaron Heilman will probably assume the role of primary set-up man and taken on a slightly bigger workload. Also a spot in the relief corps will free-up for either some new kid (like Joe Smith) or a replacement level vet' (like Jorge Sosa). Having seen Sosa pitch last year, Braves fans will be hoping it is the latter. Either way, the Mets will be 3/4 of a win worse off, which according to my numbers brings the Mets' expected win level down to 84 (the Braves are at 82). It's going to be close.