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More Speculation

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Don't worry folks, the speculation will be over soon -- in less than two days, when the season officially kicks off. Anyway, until that time I thought I'd take one final look at who is saying what about the Braves' chances (data based on Diamond-Mind sim of season except for THT, which is from my article of two weeks ago)
  • Hardball Times: 82 wins, Mets to win division on 85
  • PECOTA: 82 wins, Phillies win division with 88, Mets second with 85
  • Diamond Mind: 85 wins, tied with Phillies
  • CHONE: 83 wins, Mets and Phillies tie on 86
  • ZiPS: 87 wins, tied with Mets
It's worth nothing that these forecasts are based on talent only and do not factor in luck. That is why there are no 90 game winners predicted in any of these forecasts. That not to say it won't happen, it is to say that if it does then that team will have been lucky based on the information that we have today. The consensus is around 84 wins for the Braves and for the division race to go to the wire. Out of interest the Vegas over/under for the Braves is at 81.5 wins. Vegas has the Mets at 88 and the Phillies at 88.5. Certainly the analytical projections suggest a closer race than that. Anyone fancy a trip to Vegas?

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