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wow-3 | September | 2007 Articles

2007 Archives

Wow

on .

What a win that was. Wow. Guess what? I turned over when we were trailing by 8. I mean what on earth was there to watch? Nothing. Nada. And then? Wow ... just wow. In reality it won't make a difference to the outcome of the NL East. We have sunk too far behind both the division lead and the wild card but beating the Phillies in such a manner feels great. The graphic above is the win expectancy chart for the game. I love win expectancy because it charts how you "feel" during the game. In the top of the 8th win expectancy was practically zero ... all "felt" lost. You can see what happened as the Braves rallied -- there was a mini surge in the eight and a slump as the rally was snuffed out ... and then that magical ninth, with the Diaz double securing victory. The other metric I love is Leverage Index, also in the chart above. The higher the LI the more important a situation, where an LI of 1 is an average situation (bottom of the 3rd with no outs and no-one on, or some such. An LI of 3 means that that particular situation is 3x as important as a typical situation. Unsurprisingly some of the late game situations had an LI close to 10, which is the highest possible. What a game, what a night.

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