Why I Think Heyward Won't Hit Better Than Melky
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Written by Alex Remington   
Monday, 25 January 2010 01:44

There's no actual news to report (well, other than Peter Moylan's $1.15 contract from last week), so I thought I'd point your way toward our old friend Peter Hjort's Braves depth chart over at Capital Avenue Club. It's an interesting roster that Frank's built us, with potential platoons in 1B and LF and Chipper's standard effective platoon at 3B.

Eric Hinske is basically a platoon player anyway: since he bats lefty even though he throws righty, for his career he's OPS'ed .804 against RHP and only .666 against LHP. Then again, that doesn't help us much, because while Glaus has a platoon split, it's not one that Hinske can really address: Glaus, a righty, has a career .957 OPS against lefties but still an .822 OPS against righties. So the only reason to use Hinske over Glaus is to protect the health of a guy who's only played 280 games the last 3 years. That will also keep him fresh to back up Chipper when he inevitably gets dinged up over the summer. I'm not a big Hinske fan, but he can be useful if he's utilized sparingly.

Matt Diaz will probably be the regular (or mostly regular) left fielder, but Melky Cabrera will likely be given a certain number of defensive innings anyway. If Heyward opens up the season on the farm -- as Tom and I hope -- then Melky could see a few more starts in right. I don't really expect Heyward to be significantly better in 2010, and certainly not in the first half of 2010, than Melky Cabrera.

Why do I think that Melky and Heyward will be about the same? Justin Upton. In 2007, at the age of 19, Justin Upton posted a .961 OPS (.319/.410/.551) in A+ and AA, and was promoted to the majors. Last year, at the age of 19, Jason Heyward posted a virtually identical .963 OPS (.323/.408/.555) in A+ and AA, and was given 3 games in AAA rather than a late promotion to the majors. In his first 151 games in the big leagues, over the 2007 and 2008 seasons, when he was 19 and 20, Justin Upton batted .242/.334/.435. Considering that Upton's minor league track record was very similar to Heyward's, I don't think this level production is completely unlikely. Remember, last year, in 154 games, Melky batted .274/.336/.416 -- almost the same as Upton's line. I'd rather see him getting at-bats in right field the first two months of the season than Heyward. In this league, penny-pinching is no crime.



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written by Ron E., January 25, 2010
Sample size of 1? Pretty small, no? Even if Heyward doesn't kill it, I still think he'll be better than Melky. I hope we have a chance to find out.
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written by Alex Remington, January 25, 2010
Oh, it's a tiny sample size. And it certainly isn't decisive by any means. After all, when Alex Rodriguez was 20, he hit .358 with 36 homers and 123 RBI; when Al Kaline was 20, he hit .340 with 27 HR and 107 RBI. When Mel Ott was 20, he hit .328 with 42 HR and 151 RBI.

Justin Upton doesn't tell us much, but he does tell us this: in the very recent past, a consensus best hitting prospect in the minor leagues, a right fielder drafted out of high school with no real flaws in his game, who blazed through the minor leagues and essentially forced his way onto the major league roster, and struggled at first. Now, obviously, Upton's one of the best hitters in the game, as we all thought he would be. But it took him a season and a half or so to find his sea legs. There's no reason that Heyward needs to do that with the arbitration clock running. If he OPS's 1.200 in April and May, bring him up then. After all, anyone can OPS .700 in April. But if we let Heyward do it, then he won't be helping the team AND we'll lose a year pre-arbitration.
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written by ryan c, January 25, 2010
on both points (upton and heyward comparison and melky>heyward in 2010), bill james seems to disagree with you. chone does not.

my personal opinion, i dont want melky getting any significant at-bats for the braves, and if that means heyward starting in right field, so be it.
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written by Alex Remington, January 25, 2010
I think CHONE tends to have a slightly better track record than the Bill James predictions. (Remember, even though they bought his name for their brand, the Bill James projection system has nothing to do with Bill James the human. They tend to be the most optimistic of all projection systems.)
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written by Coach (2011 or Bust), January 26, 2010
Alex, if you are referring specifically only to 2010 I would have to agree. That said, the organizational outfield depth chart looks better than it has in a while: Cabrera, McLouth, Diaz, Schafer and Heyward are the principle everyday players while Infante and Hinske can also play the corners if needed.

So, spring training is going to be very interesting. But history is what it is. Cox almost never carries more than four everyday outfielders. Cabrera, McLouth and Diaz are locked in while Schafer is already on the 40 man, and I'm of the opinion that the fourth outfield slot is his too lose. Heyward has a chance to make the team but only if the aforementioned Jordan Schafer can't stay healthy.

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