Written by Joe Lucia | 20 March 2010

We're gonna get this out of the way in the intro: Jair Jurrjens is not an ace. And he probably never will be an ace. What would ever possess me to come up with this rash, Met or Philly fan induced statement? Well, the fact that I understand statistics. Last season, JJ posted an ERA of 2.60, third best in the National League. Most people would have you to believe that he's some sort of absolute stud pitcher who is going to be one of the dominant forces in the league for the next 15 years. NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND. People like to bring up quality starts, because they apparently "give the team a chance to win" (well, as much as a 4.50 ERA in 6 innings gives the team a chance to win). As you all should know by now, quality starts is an absolutely useless "stat". JJ had 25 quality starts, good for second in the National League. Jon Garland and Bronson Arroyo had 23 quality starts, and you don't see their milkshakes bringing any boys to the yard. Any time you quote a stat trying to show how good a pitcher is, and having Bronson Arroyo and Jon Garland hot on your heels in that stat is not something you want to ever quote again, unless you're trying to show that you're 55 year old sportswriter who thinks all blogs are like Deadspin. Jurrjens lucked out and posted a low ERA due in major part to very low strikeout and walk ratios. He struck out 6.36 per 9, and walked 3.14 per 9, resulting in a K:BB ratio of 2.03. That number is good for 32nd in the NL, behind such ace pitchers like Randy Wells, Kevin Correia, and the legendary Jason Hammel. Ironically, the "ace" coming into the year, Derek Lowe, finished behind Jurrjens. JJ's BAA was also obscenely low at .235, due in part to a tiny BABIP of .273 and a beastly high strand rate of 79.4%. Another FYI: JJ's low BABIP was only surpassed by 7 other NL pitchers, and his strand rate was 5th in the league. One of the guys ahead of him in both categories is the poster child for the exploding car off a cliff, JA Happ. Why is it fine for Braves fans to call JA Happ a fluke and say he's bound to regress, when Jurrjens was right there with him in 2 of the stats that correlate highly to factors out of a pitcher's control? Another thing. His GB:FB ratio was 1.10. You want that number to be more around the 1.50 mark if you're not striking a ton of guys out. Derek Lowe perfected this technique when before his implosion last year. Last season, Jurrjens had a sterling ratio of 1.94. Sudden dropoff, no? With the decrease in ground balls came an increase in fly balls, all the way up to 39.1%. However, despite the increased amount of flyballs, he only allowed 4 more homers. Zuh? Another statistical improbability. Only 4 pitchers had a lower HR per flyball ratio than JJ, and all but Clayton Kershaw got a lot more grounders than Jurrjens. Don't get me wrong everyone, Jair Jurrjens is a GOOD PITCHER. He's a guy that can go out and get you a 3.50 to 4.00 ERA with average luck. But he's not going to put up ERAs resembling that 2.60 too often in the future. You can say things like he goes after hitters (Jurrjens had a lower first strike percentage on the first pitch than Braden Looper, John Lannan, and - you guessed it - Jon Garland), how he gives the team a chance to win (we already touched on the nonsense of the quality start "statistic"), and so on and so forth. Fact is, he's an above average pitcher who will only be great if he has a golden horseshoe in his locker. And with his shoulder problems this spring (I don't care if he says he feels fine, its something you need to consider), don't be surprised to see a decline in performance. Not because he's a bad person...but because he's reverting to the mean, like everyone eventually does. I eagerly anticipate your rebuttals.