Written by Joe Lucia
| 25 March 2010
A key member of the bullpen this season...well, at least we hope he'll be.
Peter Moylan made a quick recovery from the Tommy John surgery he underwent last April, and was able to start the season in the Braves bullpen, much to the surprise of fans and Braves staff alike. Moylan started the year terribly in April, posting a 7.88 ERA. In an analytical point of you, it wasn't that bad...his FIP was only 3.35, and the high ERA was due in part to a laughable strand rate of 46.2%. Seriously, 46.2%? Unreal. I did not accidentally hit a 4 instead of a 7 there...anyway. After a May that saw his strikeout rate dip below his walk rate (3.72 K rate compared to a walk rate of 6.52) and his FIP rise to 4.75, Moylan got himself in line for the final 4 months of the year, posting a strikeout rate of 7.48 with a walk rate of just 3.42, and most of that walk rate came in September when he was most likely running out of gas. Most amazing for Moylan in 2009 was the fact that he did not allow one single home run all season. Doing that will keep your FIP low, as Moylan's was at 2.95, which was a full run lower than his coming out party in 2007 (3.97).
Moylan will come into the 2010 season penciled in as the 7th inning man in the Braves bullpen, with a possible promotion to the 8th if Takashi Saito continues to struggle as he has thusfar this spring. Moylan had a drop in velocity of 1.5 MPH on his fastball from 2007 to 2009, and its interesting to see if that velocity will be back this season, or if we're just going to have to deal with him having a slower than average one.
Both of Moylan's full seasons in the majors have been starkly different from each other, with strikeout and walk rates a full batter apart each season, a 74 point BABIP difference, a difference in strand rate of 8.7%, and difference in GB:FB ratio of .72. Who is the real Peter Moylan? I'm sure we'll find out this season. In my mind, he's a 3.50 FIP pitcher, but he's a guy that seems to be able to outperform his peripherals due to his tendency to get ground balls in key situations. He's a very important member of the Braves bullpen, and will be counted on as such.
From a fantasy point of view, Moylan probably isn't the best guy to draft unless your league counts holds. He's lined up to be second or third on the team in save opportunities, and won't bump your strikeout total a lot. He will get you a lot of innings if you're in a league that counts them, and won't hurt you in ERA, and only marginally in walks. If you're in a NL only league, he could be worth a pick in the back end of a draft. But if you're in a mixed team league, you can avoid him unless Billy Wagner or Takashi Saito get injured or begin to struggle.
Final projection: 7th or 8th inning guy, could get save opportunities if there is an injury or a bout of ineffectiveness with either of the 2 bullpen free agent signings. Will be a key member of the pen, and needs to continue to produce for the team to be successful and protecting late game leads.
