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2012-player-preview-nick-ahmed | January | 2012 Articles

2012 Player Preview: Nick Ahmed

Written by Joe Lucia on .

This is the first of 70 player previews I'll be writing, previewing the 2012 season for each member of the Braves 40-man roster, each non-roster invitee, each member of our midseason top 30 prospects list, and assorted other prospects. First up: Nick Ahmed.

Nick AhmedNick Ahmed was drafted by the Atlanta Braves in the second round (85th overall) of the 2011 draft out of UConn. The 21 year-old shortstop was sent to Danville to start his career, and he held his own, with a line of .262/.346/.379 in 59 games. Like many young hitters, Ahmed had a deficiency against lefties, as he hit just .228/.302/.316 against them. Overall, his plate discipline was very good, walking 30 times while striking out 46 times in 284 plate appearances, for a walk rate of 10.6% and a strikeout rate of 16.2%. His power didn't develop the way I really expected, with just a .117 ISO on the season.

Ahmed will likely start 2012 in Rome, where 2011 shortstop Matt Lipka is being converted to center field, and might have to repeat the level because of his anemic bat. At 6'3", 205, you'd really expect more power from Ahmed, even as a middle infield bat. He's a guy who could be a big riser in the Braves system in 2012, especially if the power appears this season. With the lack of power right now, I don't think he could be a starter in the majors, but his plate discipline gives the air of a strong bench bat. Then again, he's been a member of the organization for seven months, so let's not be too hasty.

I really think Ahmed can be a top 20 or so prospect in the organization by year's end, and he could possibly be top ten if (as I've mentioned before) the power develops. Right now, he's still a college bat in the low minors, and he should be dominating. The move to full-season ball will test his mettle and determine whether he's more like Philip Gosselin, or more like Joey Terdoslavich.

Check out Ahmed's 2012 player projection on THT

Photo credit to Joe Lucia
6 comments
congtysangoviet1
congtysangoviet1

Ahmed will likely start 2012 in Rome, where 2011 shortstop Matt Lipka is being converted to center field, and might have to repeat the level because of his anemic bat. At 6'3", 205, you'd really expect http://bit.ly/duong-vat-chay-mu-vang more power from Ahmed, even as a middle infield bat. He's a guy who could be a big riser in the Braves system in 2012, especially if the power appears this season. With the lack of power right now, I don't think he could be a starter in the majors, but his plate discipline gives the air of a strong bench bat. Then again, he's been a member of the organization for seven months, so let's not be too hasty.


I really think Ahmed can be a top 20 or so prospect in the organization by year's end, and he could possibly be top ten if (as I've mentioned before) http://congtysangoviet.com/san-pham/bang-gia-san-go-inovar-hien-nay the power develops. Right now, he's still a college bat in the low minors, and he should be dominating. The move to full-season ball will test his mettle and determine whether he's more like Philip Gosselin, or more like Joey Terdoslavich.

Cerrato7
Cerrato7

I never claimed that anything you said was untrue. I simply meant to say, and I stand by this, that your analysis was incomplete. Perhaps you already knew this. As you say, any young minor leaguers have very little experience to assess. Or put more accurately, very few numbers to crunch. Those who try to analyze young (or any age) players solely by their statistics are providing incomplete, and perhaps skewed, pictures of the value or future success of a player. This includes professional scouts and coaches, by the way.

Numbers can't tell the whole story despite the rise of Sabermetrics. (By the way, how has Billy Beane done recently with that approach?)

You admit you do not include defense in your assessments because error numbers are often an inaccurate barometer of a players worth in the field.

This also goes for stolen base numbers. Steals do not completely reflect the value of speed and smart baserunning. And to say the Braves or any organization doesn't value speed because they are not a team that steals a lot of bases is ridiculous.

So again, my point is not that you have submitted untrue statistics, but that statistical analysis alone leaves out much important information when one puts together any kind of assessment of young minor leaguers.

Cerrato7
Cerrato7

So you are saying that you saw Ahmed play once? Or was it an entire series? The reason I ask is, and admittedly I have a bias as Nick is my nephew, how can one get an accurate read on a 21 year old from one or a few games? And also I'm continually amazed at how offensive statistics dominate any player ratings. Not to diminish offense but there are other facets to the game. Like defense, speed/baserunning, smarts, leadership. And I can say without bias that Nick excels in those areas. Ask his coaches. My point is, it's awful hard to make accurate assessments solely based on numbers on a screen. And by the way, Nick would be the first to tell you he needs to develop his offensive game, which is why he has worked his butt off in the cage this winter.

Cerrato7
Cerrato7

Just wondering, I'm new to this site, how often are you able to actually view minor league players? I would imagine it would it might difficult driving all around Virginia and Georgia getting an accurate scouting read on all these young athletes. Or are you rating them solely on stats?


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