When postseason ball comes along, the need to set a postseason roster takes place. I'm going to break this down into a few chunks: the starters, the bench, the starting pitchers, and the bullpen. As we've hit September 1st, there will be no more acquisitions taking place to beef up the roster. The Braves are going to go to war with what they have in the majors and minors right now.
First, the starters. These eight guys are set in stone to be the starters come October, barring injury: Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, Dan Uggla, Alex Gonzalez, Chipper Jones, Martin Prado, Michael Bourn, and Jason Heyward. We are not busting down any doors on this one.
Going to the bench, there are a couple more guys who are locks: Eric Hinske, Brooks Conrad, and David Ross. That leaves two (or three, depending on how the bullepn shakes out) roster spots left for the bench.
The nominees for these bench spots are Julio Lugo, Jack Wilson, Matt Diaz, Jose Constanza, and a bunch of guys in AAA on the 40-man, like Brandon Hicks, Matt Young, Wilkin Ramirez, and JC Boscan. We can immediately eliminate the minor leaguers, since the Braves solidified their bench yesterday with the acquisitions of Diaz and Wilson. Both of those guys appear to be locks on the roster too, since they were acquired for that sole purpose. If the Braves are going to stick with a five man bench, then everything is set with those five. But what if the team decides to drop a starting pitcher in the first round, and go with a six man bench? If that happens, Constanza is the immediate choice due to his speed. I don't think Lugo has a prayer at making the postseason roster after the trade for Wilson, unless he struggles mightily after being brought in.
The starting rotation and bullpen are a whole different story. With Tommy Hanson out for the foreseeable future, the Braves have five starters for three spots in the rotation during the divisional playoffs. The immediate guess is that the rotation for the first round will be Brandon Beachy, Tim Hudson, and Mike Minor. Derek Lowe and Jair Jurrjens have been absolutely horrible during the month of August, but Lowe's start last night gives the squad a glimmer of hope that he could pull off a September like he did last year in helping carry the team into the playoffs. But if Lowe has a solid month, who gets the boot? My immediate guess would be Minor. He's been much better in four August starts, despite what that slightly disappointing 4.03 ERA looks like. In August, Minor allowed just one home run, walked four, and struck out 26. He's been fine, and is pitching much better than Jurrjens (6.17 ERA, four HR, 11 BB, six K in August) and Lowe (4.50 ERA, four HR, 13 BB, 31 K in August, though he's got a 1.50 ERA in his last three starts). Beachy and Hudson appear to be locks with as well as they've pitched this season, especially lately.
And now, the interesting part of things....the bullpen. The holy trinity (Kimbrel, Venters, O'Flaherty) are lead pipe locks. Arodys Vizcaino will join them as well. What about Scott Linebrink? He had a pair of rough outings in his return from the DL two weeks ago, but has thrown 2 1/3 scoreless in his last three appearances (despite allowing five baserunners). Plus, he's a veteran. Fredi loves veterans. If George Sherrill is able to pitch (he was placed on the DL yesterday to make room for Diaz), then he would be another lock for his shutdown ability towards lefties. That leaves us with one open spot. Cristhian Martinez is currently taking up that spot in the pen, but with a starter or two in the bullpen, there's no need for a long reliever. I don't think he'll end up making the cut. Martinez got a lot of use in August and struggled, allowing seven earned in 14 innings, but he did walk only one hitter while striking out a batter per inning.
But there's another interesting option currently in Gwinnett: fan favorite Peter Moylan. Moylan will finish up his rehab and join the Braves late next week, and has had a reputation over his career as a ground ball machine. I don't see any way that Moylan doesn't make the roster if he's healthy, despite him not pitching in the majors since the beginning of April. I'd like to see what he can do in the majors before handing him a spot, though. He's been fine during rehab in AAA, but there is a world of difference between Gwinnett and Atlanta. If his tendency to walk lefties pops up again this month, it might be not the best idea to roll with Moylan on the postseason roster. Someone like Anthony Varvaro could be a better bet due to his insane strikeout ability. He's also got a problem with walks though. I don't see either Julio Teheran or Randall Delgado making the postseason roster, just because it seems like overkill to thrust a rookie into the shark tank that is a playoff bullpen when neither has any experience relieving during their careers.
The only real questions in my mind come down to the pitching staff, notably what the Braves want to do with their rotation and that final bullpen slot. Here's hoping that the team doesn't go with reputation over results. There's no reason for Jair Jurrjens to be starting a playoff game if he continues to pitch this poorly. I could see making a case for Derek Lowe, though. And handing a playoff roster spot to Moylan based on the fact that he's Peter Moylan...yeah, that could be a little sketchy if he's still struggling against left-handed hitters upon getting called up. I guess we'll find out what's going to happen in a little less than a month. no comments
Now, what's the benefit for bringing in a guy like Wilson instead of sticking with Lugo? Wilson is a bad hitter, but nowhere near as terrible as the anemic Lugo. The real benefit for bringing in Wilson is his defense: he is EXCELLENT with the glove at both short and second. If the team feels the need to get Alex Gonzalez out of the game, they can go with Wilson and not lose anything on defense, while remaining consistent (well, consistent on a low level) with the bat. When the team needed to give Gonzalez rest or whatever, they'd go with Lugo, who can't hit or field at this point in his career. Wilson at least brings something to the table, while Lugo takes everything off the table.
The bench is looking pretty solid right now, with Hinske, Ross, Conrad, Wilson, and either Diaz or Constanza, assuming the team only goes five deep in the playoffs. That's a bench that can compete with some of the best in the league, and it'll give the Braves a distinct advantage in October. no comments
WP: Lowe (9-12)
LP: Lannan (8-11)
SV: Kimbrel (41)
Let's get the good stuff out of the way first: with his 41st save tonight, Craig Kimbrel set a new rookie record for saves, breaking Neftali Feliz's record of 40 last year. And to think, he's still got a month to tack onto that total. Could 50 be in sight?
Anyway, the game. This was a real solid win. Derek Lowe turned in a shockingly great start. He held the Nats to two hits (both by Ian Desmond) through six innings while walking two and striking out six. Then he came out to start the seventh, allowed a homer to Michael Morse, and was pulled to a great ovation. The three horsemen of the apocalypse then set down the next nine Nationals hitters in a row on just 35 pitches, striking out three in the process. I love six inning games.
The offense for the Braves came in short bursts. The scoring started in the second with a Chipper Jones solo homer, the 450th of his career. I'd love it if he stuck around long enough to get 500, but I doubt it'll happen. He's got 14 this year and will probably finish at 18 or so...he'd need two plus years of that kind of production to hit the magic milestone, and I don't think he's got that much left in the tank. The Braves got more scoring in the third, when Lowe of all people lined his first career homer over the left field wall. The third run was tacked on later in the inning when Dan Uggla drove in Martin Prado on an infield single. In Matt Diaz's re-debut with the team, he was up to his old tricks again, scoring two bloop hits and seeing just seven pitches in three at bats. Some things never change. Freddie Freeman also had a pair of hits despite inexplicably hitting in the seventh spot of the order. Shockingly, the top three hitters (Bourn-Prado-McCann) went 0/11 with a walk. It's pretty encouraging when they struggle and get picked up by the lower half of the order.
The Braves look to clinch a .500 record for the season and pick up their 81st win of the year tomorrow against the Nationals. The pitching matchup is a favorable one for the Braves: Tim Hudson versus Chien Ming Wang. First pitch is at 7:05. I will *not* be watching the game live, because I will be at the Nationals AA game in Harrisburg to see Stephen Strasburg make his final rehab start. The game would have been perfect if Harrisburg lost or Bowie won tonight, because they would be in a position to clinch the division title...but the Senators clinched tonight with a 2-1 win over Portland. Oh well, it'll still be a great time.
Also, I'm going to look to get some meaningful content of some sort up tomorrow. No idea WHAT...but it'll be here, so look for that. no comments
Diaz's role throughout his entire career has been that of a lefty killer. Last season with Atlanta, he had an overall line of .250/.302/.438, which is substandard from a corner outfielder. But against lefties, his line was a solid .273/.318/.512. But that line was actually a downgrade from his career line against lefties, which is .329/.369/.511. You can't even blame a low BABIP last season for his struggles, as his mark against lefties was .312. While that's down from his career lefty BABIP of .362, it's still a high number.
This season with the Pirates, Diaz has become unplayable. His overall line is a hideous .259/.303/.324. Against lefties, once his forte, Diaz is hitting .295/.342/.362. His once solid power against lefties has completely disappeared. You can't even blame Diaz's starting drop in power on his home park, as he's got a .063 ISO at PNC Park, and a .067 ISO on the road. That is a minimal difference.
What concernes me about the Diaz acquisition is his playing time. You know that because he's back in the fold, he's going to be getting regular starts against lefties. And of course, in tonight's lineup, Jason Heyward is on the bench. He gets benched the night after he goes 1/2 and drives in the only two runs of the game for the Braves. Meanwhile, Diaz is in the midst of an August stretch where he OPSed .574 in 32 at bats. It's almost as if the Braves don't WANT Heyward to get into a groove, first starting Jose Constanza over him due to the hot hand fallacy, and now starting Diaz in front of him due to the platoon fallacy. Diaz is also a terrible defender in right field while Heyward is a magnificent one, but since no one really gives a damn about defense when discussing Jason Heyward, I'm sure you'll all let that little tidbit slip by too.
But I'm not done yet. In the offseason, Diaz signed a two year deal with the Pirates worth $4.25 million. The Braves will still be on the hook for $2 million next year...and that is more than both Eric Hinske ($1.5 million) and David Ross ($1.625 million) will be making. They are two of the best bench players in the league. Diaz is not. The team is locked in for $2 million for a bench player who only has usefulness against lefties. This is not a smart way to run a team at all.
I understand the reasoning behind the deal. Diaz is a fan favorite who has a reputation for being a lefty killer off the bench, which is something that the Braves have felt they've needed all year. However, that reasoning is outdated, and the cons outweigh the benefits in this situation. With the addition of Diaz, someone who could actually help the team in October will be left off the roster. And it's probably going to end up being Jose Constanza, because I can't see any situation where the team goes into the postseason with Brooks Conrad as the only member of the bench with an ability to play up the middle. Funny how that works....yesterday's treasure is today's trash. Matt Diaz is today's flavor of the week, and Braves fans are going to realize pretty quickly that he's not the same player that he was back in 2009. no comments
-Billy Bullock. Acquired from the Twins in March for Scott Diamond, Bullock is a reliever who has struck out 65 and walked 34 in 49 2/3 innings. The fastball is dynamic, but the control is a mess.
-Erik Cordier. I'm not a fan of Cordier. He's battled injuries this season, and has only thrown 86 innings for Mississippi and Gwinnett. He's walked 48 and struck out 63. He's on the 40-man roster, and is probably tenth on the starting pitcher depth chart right now. This seems like a "last chance" to prove himself.
-Sean Gilmartin. The first round pick of the Braves in the 2011 draft, Gilmartin has made five professional starts: one in the GCL, and four in Rome. He's walked 23 and walked only two, and is way more advanced in his development than his current level of competition would indicate. I wouldn't be shocked to see him in Mississippi to start the 2012 season.
-JJ Hoover. After a rough start to his career in Gwinnett (which I witnessed, live and in person!), Hoover has excelled in his second run in the International League. He's been converted to the bullpen, and as a reliever for the G-Braves this year, he's struck out 22 and walked just four in 10 2/3 innings. He's struck out multiple hitters in all but one of his relief stints in AAA this year.
-Christian Bethancourt. Bethancourt is the best catching prospect in the system, and is still very young at just 19 years old (he turns 20 on Friday). He's struggled since a midseason promotion to Lynchburg, OPSing just .608 with no power and no patience at the plate in 44 games. He's turned it up a little in August, with a line of .313/.324/.375.
-Phil Gosselin. Gosselin has taken a step back offensively this year in the Carolina League after earning a late promotion to the league last season. He was drafted out of the University of Virginia last season by the Braves, and has had some peaks and valleys in his game this season: his power has increased while his walk rate has decreased and his strikeout rate has decreased. I'd like to see a college bat like this show a little more at the dish, and the AFL will be a good place for him to show off his abilities.
-Todd Cunningham. Cunningham was a midseason All-Star in the Carolina League, but has fallen off a bit in August after returning from an injury. He was having a great season before he got hurt. Cunningham doesn't strike out much at all and has decent speed, but no pop. He was another college bat taken by the Braves last season, and needs his power to mature a little more before he becomes an impact prospect.
Looking at the rest of the Saguaros...it's a damn solid team. In addition to the Braves, the other teams putting players on the team are the Royals, Rangers, Rays and Marlins. There are some decent prospects on the team, including Jeremy Jeffress, Kyle Skipworth, Tim Beckham, Christian Colon, Matt Dominguez, Mikie Mahtook, and Wil Myers. Gosselin is one of two second basemen on the roster, so he should get a decent chunk of playing time, as should Cunningham since there are only five outfielders. As for the catchers....Skipworth has never hit as a professional, and Elio Sarmiento (the third catcher) is a 25 year old. Definite positive for Bethancourt's playing time.
I'm hoping that the games will be aired in some fashion, on MLB.TV or MiLB.TV...but I doubt either happens. Games run from October 4th to November 19th. no comments
People misunderstand my hatred of Fredi Gonzalez. Overall, I don’t hate the man, and while I do think there are and could be better managers, I’m not sure I would even fire him. Thinking about the manager in totality, their job priorities go clubhouse management and (massive gap) strategy. I will remind you that filling out the roster really doesn’t come into play at all for managers, though they do get some input, so while the Braves have handled injuries quite well, that has more to do with Wren maintaining pitching depth, keeping Prado around to fill in where necessary, trading scraps for Bourn, and having some voodoo magic to keep David Ross and Eric Hinske as important bench players. None of that has to do with Fredi, so stop giving him credit for the Braves’ record.
But what can we give him credit for? As I said, maintaining the clubhouse is Fredi’s, and any manager’s, top priority and most important duty, but it is, unfortunately, the one thing we have zero access to. We don’t know what happens in the clubhouse, what Fredi does to maintain it, and whether or not it has any efficacy. We just don’t, and neither does DOB or Bowman. All the good stuff happens behind closed doors and away from curious eyes. But let’s try to piece a few things together. The fact that we haven’t heard anything from the clubhouse is probably a good sign, but is the happy clubhouse because of Fredi or the winning record?
Winning teams rarely have problems, but it’s also irresponsible to hold it against Fredi that he has a good team to manage. The one exception might be Chipper calling out Jason, but I’d argue it wasn’t a big deal and may be a point in Fredi’s favor. Chipper obviously just says things now and has given up keeping his mouth shut, but he’s the team leader and more harm than good might be done by telling him to shut up. And Heyward still likes Chipper. Parents scold children all the time, but it doesn’t mean the children now hate the parents. Heyward and Chipper have obviously worked things out, if there was something to work out, and Chipper’s been feeding Heyward batting tips. He could have gone to McCann, but he went to Chipper. Problem over.
The next biggest issue is this thing with Heyward and his playing time. We’ll talk about strategy in a minute, but let’s focus on the clubhouse right now. In no way has Heyward moaned and groaned about what has happened. Sure, that might be a point in Heyward’s favor, but that he showed no surprise or anger tells me Fredi sat him down and explained the situation. Communication is key, and I applaud Fredi if this is common practice. That no one else has said anything is another point in Fredi’s favor. It could be that everyone was just on board, but it also tells me that the players are behind his decisions, which is crucial for a manager who must have players obey him. Overall, if I were to say managing is 80% clubhouse and 20% strategy (I have no idea if that’s close to the truth, but I’m trying to be conservative), Fredi already has an 80/100 from me.
Now comes the strategy part and where Fredi and I part ways. Right off the bat, I’ll give Fredi a few points of credit for generally yanking starters on time, but that’s about it. His lineup construction has seen Jordan Schafer and Alex Gonzalez high in the order for significant periods. He pigeonholes his best relievers into the 8th and 9th innings. He bunts early in the game, restricting the potential for multiple runs when no one has any idea what number of runs will win the game. He refuses to pinch-hit with his best right-handed bench bat Ross, and he refuses to pinch-hit for Alex Gonzalez in critical situations. I could go on, but I think you get the point. Fredi’s a poor tactical manager.
But so are most managers, and I think it’s part of the process. These managers were brought along in the game during a time when speed was your lead-off man, middle infielders hit second, and closers were becoming the cool thing to have. Most managers are simply going to make similar decisions because it was taught that way to them, and that’s hard to break. But it’s also why Fredi’s a poor tactician. He understands the behind-the-scenes macho culture of baseball and has baseball cred, and that’s why he does well in the clubhouse. But his inability or refusal to actually think for himself is troubling. His responses to strategy questions are known before he gives them because they are so stereotypical. And they’ve been proven wrong by people curious enough to look. But the difference between Fredi and most other managers is the difference between trying to sweep dirt off a carpet with a normal broom and a Swiffer. Both are ineffective, but the Swiffer might get a little more.
To give Fredi his final grade, I’ll give him 4 points out of 20 for strategy. Overall that’s an 84/100, but a few people might give him a couple extra points in the strategy department. In any case, Fredi earns a B/B- for his overall managing prowess, which is about what I would have expected. A B/B- is fine and certainly enough to let him continue on, but it’s certainly nothing special.
Now about that Manager of the Year Award, it’s the hardest award to award correctly. As I’ve already said, the most important thing they do is also the most opaque to our eyes. There are also tons of myths surrounding the award. For one, managers get credit when the team vastly outperforms projections even though projections are not certain and the improvement probably has nothing to do with the manager and more to do with the general manager (I find it funny that a lot of people know who the manager of a team is but not the general manager, when the general manager is probably the most important man in the organization). For another, the manager gets credit when he deals with injuries or hardship, even though the virtue is probably (again) the general manager’s and not the manager’s. Picking the right one is extremely difficult, but I don't think Fredi's your man. It’s not that I don’t want to give Fredi credit. I’m fully willing to give him credit where it’s due. But I won’t give it to him because I’m told to or because baseball tradition tells me to. I expect him to make moves that are beneficial to this club, and when he does not, I will point it out.
no commentsMets 6 (62-68), Braves 0 (79-54)
w: Chris Capuano
L: Tim Hudson
EDIT: I've tried to no avail to embed a YouTube clip here. It won't work. So go watch it here, not only so that the next sentence makes sense, but so that you can laugh a little bit.
Ok, so it was two hits. But the Braves didn't even give us the benefit of the run, so that comes right out in the wash.
Seriously, though, you guys, the Braves -- who, APPARENTLY, lead the NL in home runs -- were facing Chris "Mr. 2006" Capuano. And this is what Capuano did:
9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 13 K
It was the best start of his career, and the best start by a Mets pitcher all season. And the Braves did all they could to help him; no Brave had an at-bat longer than seven pitches, and Capuano drew only two 3-0 counts all night. I don't think Michael Bourn could've missed more sliders if he'd told his buddies to just bring him back some White Castle, but he fell asleep before they got back and they ate them all. Plate discipline was as foreign a concept to these Braves as Watch the Throne to Dick Cheney. The Braves' first hit came on a broken bat grounder from Dan Uggla in the fifth inning. amd the second came off of David Ross's bat in the eighth.
Speaking of Ross, I don't understand why he was playing tonight. The Braves have three consecutive off days coming up thanks to Hurricane Irene and a scheduled break on Monday, so why rest your best hitter? I know the shine hasn't come off David Ross to a lot of people, but for as good as he is in his role, his role is backup catcher. The upside there is extremely limited. And as long as we're speaking of things, speaking of limited upside, Jose Constanza got the start Jason Heyward, because Heyward is in a strict platoon situation ... except, and I'm not sure that this has been beaten into peoples' heads enough, JOSE CONSTANZA IS ALSO LEFT HANDED. I know Heyward's struggling. I know that. But why oh why do we think he'd be better than Heyward against lefties?
Plus, to add insult to injury, Constanza did that stupid thing where he takes a running swing. Absolutely infuriating. Even the Mets' broadcasters castigated him for it.
I'll touch briefly on the Braves pitching before pouring tequila over this game and lighting it on fire. Hudson scattered -- inasmuch as that's even possible -- 11 hits over 6 1/3 innings while allowing four runs and three walks and striking out just four. Fredi called upon George Sherrill and Scott Linebrink to protect a 2-0 lead because he hates good sense; Sherrill retired a lefty, and then Linebrink surrendered a two-run double to Lucas Duda on the very first pitch that he threw. And then, with the damage done, Jonny Venters came in, and allowed a pair of runs himself thanks to a sinker that didn't sunk.
Blah. Whatever. Tomorrow's affair is man vs. nature; that very essence from which we have sprung combatting our own wits and resolve and also Twitter's servers. I'll be back in a week but good luck to all y'all east coasters. Oh, and a word of advice: you don't have enough bottled water or liquor. Cheers!
