SPRING TRAINING, HELL YEAH! Fortunately, that means we get access to a new round of awesome Fredi Gonzalez interviews. Today, Fredi spoke with reporters upon the opening of spring camp.

"Stop looking in the rear view mirror and start looking in the front mirror to see what's ahead of us"

So uh...stop looking in the rear view mirror, that's self explanatory. If you're looking at a mirror, you're seeing what's behind you. If you were looking in a mirror that would show you what's in front of you...it's just glass? It's not a mirror at all?

"In the major leagues today they're breaking camp today, or broke camp yesterday, I think Seattle broke camp a week ago..."

Note to Fredi: breaking camp is what happens at the end of game, thus you'll hear the phrase "broke camp and headed to Atlanta to start the season", not "broke camp and started practicing in Orlando".

Guys, I have a feeling our manager isn't too smart.

[h/t: Dirk Hayhurst on Twitter]

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Braves starter Tommy Hanson, who missed a nice chunk of time last season with shoulder problems, was involved in a single car accident this morning on his way to the Braves complex in Orlando. According to Mark Bowman, Hanson blew out a tire and bumped his head. He showed up at camp, but didn't participate in any workouts, and went to a doctor to be checked for a concussion. No word on what the results of the tests are.

....and so begins the Braves' spring camp. Hanson is going to be a huge part of Atlanta's success or failure this season, and a concussion, no matter how minor or how severe, would slow his progress in his return to facing live hitting his spring. Concussions are serious business, and it would be an absolutely crushing blow to the team early on if he suffered one. Here's hoping that Hanson is fine and in camp tomorrow to resume workouts and drills.

There is a lot of hubbub lately about FOX extending their national blackout window into primetime this year, opting to televise numerous games locally over an eight week period as opposed to the usual three or so in the afternoon. Braves fans locally in the south really shouldn't care about this, because they'll get the games on FOX, and that'll be the end of that.

But Braves fans are everywhere nationwide, and this is more complicated than "southern fans are fine!" Here's a list of the games where the Braves game on Saturday will fall into FOX's broadcast window.

June 16th, 7 PM: Orioles @ Braves
June 23rd, 7 PM: Braves @ Red Sox
July 7th, 7 PM: Braves @ Phillies
July 14th, 3:30 PM: Mets @ Braves
July 28th, 3:30 PM: Phillies @ Braves
August 25th, 3:30 PM: Braves @ Giants
September 1st, 3:30 PM: Phillies @ Braves
September 8th, 3:30 PM: Braves @ Mets

So the Braves are going to be featured in FOX blackouts just eight times, out of a possible 22. The final two Saturdays of the season are up to FOX as to which games they want to feature, so the max possible amount is ten blackouts, which isn't that terrible. Compare that to some other prominent teams though. The Phillies have seven games on nationally, the Red Sox, Cubs, and Yankees have nine, the Mets have eight for some reason...you get the idea. Most of the good teams in the league in larger markets have a lot of games on, while the smaller market teams don't have many.

What does this mean for you if you're an out of market fan looking to buy MLB.TV or Extra Innings? Well, in addition to the local blackouts you'll get (living in central PA, I get four: Phillies, Nationals, Orioles, Pirates), you'll be blacked out of eight additional games unless you're in the viewing area for those games. Note that all but one of the FOX telecasts are against teams located in the northeast, which means that fans west of maybe Ohio would be screwed for watching Braves games on FOX.

Personally, the blackouts aren't a huge deal for me. They'll always be around. They totally suck, but they'll be there for awhile. But the thing that irks me are the local overall blackouts, because I'm thinking about ditching my cable box....which would take me out of the running to view games on Root Pittsburgh, Comcast Philly, and MASN. That's what, 47 games I wouldn't be able to see? At worst, let me watch the non-local feed on MLB.TV. It's the least you can do, right?

The Braves took Robert Fish in this year's Rule 5 draft, and he'll compete for one of the coveted bullpen spots (which are scarce at the moment). Fish spent last year with the Los Angeles Angels (after being taken by the Yankees in last year's Rule 5 draft before being returned to LA). He spent the majority of the year with Arkansas of the AA Texas League. For Arkansas, Fish showed some good qualities. In 30 1/3 innings, he struck out 41, and had a 1.88 ground ball to fly ball. He also allowed just one home run over the course of the season.

The 24 year-old showed a negative trait, however: walks. Fish walked 18 hitters in those 30 1/3 innings, but with all due respect, seven of those came in one disastrous appearance in September. Take that outing out, and Fish struck out 41 and walked 11 in 28 2/3 innings. Combine that with the 19 hits he allowed (again, excluding that seven walk appearance in September, where he also allowed two hits), and Fish had a fantastic 1.367 DOM on the season. That is a fantastic number.

In AA last year, Fish did show some platoon splits against lefties and righties. Against lefties, he walked four and struck out 17 in 11 innings (1.133 DOM). Against righties, he struck out 24 and walked 14 in 19 1/3 innings (0.800 DOM). That's a definite split, and he could have a role on the team as a lefty specialist, much in the role that George Sherrill had last year (and was effective at, despite fans and their silly anti-Sherrill crusade).

Fish has thrown just 2/3 of an inning in AAA, and his lack of experience at the level could submarine his chances at making the major league roster. He's a nice guy to have in the organization, and I hope that even if he doesn't make the major league roster, the Braves are able to work something out with the Angels to keep him in the organization.

Today, former Indians and Cubs outfielder Kosuke Fukudome signed with the Chicago White Sox, for the low cost of $1 million. When I saw this, I immediately began to think how great of a fit he would have been with the Braves, especially at that price.

The Braves' fourth outfielder right now is Matt Diaz, with Jose Constanza looking to rip that title from him. We all know what each player is at this point in time: Diaz is a platoon bat who is losing his touch for hitting lefties, and Constanza is a speed merchant with no power or plate discipline. Got it. On the other hand, Fukudome is a versatile bat with good plate discipline and average power for a center fielder. He's only a year older than Diaz, and his walk rate is routinely twice what Diaz's normally rests at.

The major difference that Diaz and Constanza have over Fukudome is their batting average. Fukudome is a career .260 hitter, while Diaz (when on) and Constanza can crack .300. But then again, we're in the year 2012, and we should know that getting on base is the overall name of the game, and Fukudome does that better than Diaz. Constanza is a guy who just be a pair of legs if the BABIP bubble bursts (as it did after his miracle run last year), and I'm not sure that's a risk I'm willing to take.

At the end of the day, Frank Wren's trade for Matt Diaz last August continues to haunt the team. He's an inferior player to Fukudome, and he's more than twice as much. Seriously? Feel good stories are all well and good sometimes, but only when they work out well. The Diaz acquisition continues to plague the Braves, nearly six months after it happened. 

In case you missed it earlier tonight, I wrote about the Braves' usage of DOM and where the team's pitchers stood in the grand scheme of things. As I thought about it and crunched all the numbers, I thought that DOM might favor relievers more than it did starters, after seeing the higher numbers posted by the team's bullpen in 2011. So I decided to take it upon myself to do a little more research into the topic.

Here are the top ten DOM numbers for relievers in baseball in 2011.

Koji Uehara	1.809
Kenley Jansen	1.714
Craig Kimbrel	1.588
Jonathan Papelbon	1.450
Tyler Clippard	1.405
Rafael Betancourt	1.352
David Robertson	1.333
Greg Holland	1.321
Sergio Santos	1.314
Antonio Bastardo	1.296

 
The highest FIP of those ten players belongs to Clippard, at 3.17. Of the top ten relievers in baseball in FIP, five are on that list, including all of the top four.

Now, let's look at the top ten DOM numbers for starters in baseball in 2011, qualified starters only.

Clayton Kershaw	1.088
Justin Verlander	1.082
Cliff Lee	0.996
Zack Greinke	0.976
Cole Hamels	0.923
Michael Pineda	0.920
Roy Halladay	0.905
Josh Beckett	0.884
Brandon Morrow	0.879
James Shields	0.865

Of that list, the highest FIP is Morrow at 3.64. Of the top ten starters in baseball in FIP, five are once again present, including the top three. 

What does this little exercise prove? Relievers will generally have a higher DOM than starters. In fact, there are 16 relievers who have DOM values higher than the best starter.

The correlation between FIP and DOM isn't strong, but there is a slight one there. The average reliever DOM (among qualified candidates) was .778, and out of all 34 relievers with a FIP lower than 3.00, six had a DOM above league average, only one had a groundball rate that wasn't more than 12% above the league average of 44%: Darren Oliver.

When it comes to starters, the average DOM (among qualified candidates) was just 0.635. Of the 45 players with a DOM higher than that mark, there were seven with a FIP above 4.00. Of those seven, only Ricky Romero and Wandy Rodriguez (by 1%) had a groundball rate HIGHER than the league average of 44%.

Now, what does THIS show us? DOM is a better indicator of player success than it is for relievers than for pitchers...unless we're talking about groundball relievers, then there is more of a chance for variability. For starters, an above average DOM isn't a perfect indicator of success, but it's not completely meaningless either. Approximately 83-85% of pitchers with an above average DOM will have a solid FIP. 

It's not an exact correlation, but it's pretty accurate. If you figure in all starters and relievers as opposed to qualified ones, the bar gets lowered dramatically. For example, looking at all relievers as opposed to qualified ones pushes the average down to 0.669, which would put 83 of the 134 qualified relievers above average. For starters, the bar falls to .570, which puts 55 of 90 qualified starters over the average guideline.

Today at Georgia Tech, Braves GM Frank Wren and Scouting Director John Coppolella were giving a guest lecture in a sports analytics class. The lecture gave an inside look into the Braves operations, and some of their analytical tools. Nothing too note-worthy came out of it, aside from the fact that the Braves use a stat called DOM to evaluate pitchers. DOM is thought of by the organization on the same scale as OPS, with the major league average last season being .602. To calculate DOM, you divide a pitcher's strikeouts by his walks plus his hits. Below is a list of each Braves pitcher's DOM for 2011.

Kris Medlen		2
Eric O'Flaherty		0.838
Jonny Venters		1
Craig Kimbrel		1.588
Anthony Varvaro		0.885
Randall Delgado		0.419
Jair Jurrjens		0.484
George Sherrill		0.844
Tim Hudson		0.645
Peter Moylan		0.667
Cristhian Martinez		0.773
Tommy Hanson		0.934
Scott Linebrink		0.532
Brandon Beachy		0.988
Mike Minor		0.626
Arodys Vizcaino		0.68
Julio Teheran		0.345
Derek Lowe		0.486
Scott Proctor		0.36
Jairo Asencio		0.381
Cory Gearrin		0.862

Some interesting observations coming out of the list...

-The holy trinity in the bullpen was excellent
-Of the starters, DOM liked Hanson and Beachy the most
-DOM wasn't a fan of Hudson and Minor
-DOM absoutely hated Delgado, Lowe, and Jurrjens
-Some reliever you didn't expect to be good were (Sherrill, Gearrin, Varvaro)
-The relievers you expected to be bad were (Linebrink, Proctor)

Some things I don't like about DOM...
-It doesn't penalize a fly ball, high home run pitcher
-It doesn't reward a ground ball, weak contact pitcher

One thing I noticed while looking at this is that the stat really doesn't favor some legendary Braves. Greg Maddux's career DOM is .588. Tom Glavine's is .450, and John Smoltz's is .755. Compare that to current players and their career DOMs, like Jonathan Sanchez (.749), Oliver Perez (.684), and Rich Harden (.789). What those numbers tells me is that the stat is skewed towards high strikeout pitchers, and doesn't give "finesse" guys a fair shake.

When tracking the minor league stats for 2012, I'll be keeping track of DOM from now on, just to see if promotions match the newly unearthed stat. It'll be interesting to watch for sure. 

The Braves signed Luis Durango this offseason as a minor league free agent, and invited him to spring camp. Looking at Durango's skills overall, he reminds me a lot of someone else that will be in camp, but on the 40-man roster: Jose Constanza. Durango has gotten brief cups of coffee in the majors over the last three seasons with the Padres and Astros, and has really only shown two skill: speed, and plate discipline. In his 39 games in the majors, mostly coming in off the bench, Durango has just a .653 OPS, not logging one extra base hit over his 74 plate appearances. However, he's walked seven times (9.5% walk rate) and has stolen seven bases, being caught just once.

Comparing the 25 (soon to be 26) year-old to Constanza's stint in the majors this past year, you get a sense that Durango is a lesser version of Constanza. Constanza received 119 plate appearances last season, his only career major league action, and had a .724 OPS. He walked six times (5.0%), and stole seven bases, but unlike Durango, he was caught four times. Constanza also showed more power than Durango, rapping out four extra base hits, including a pair of homers.

Looking at each player's minor league numbers tells a different story. In AAA last year, Durango had a .640 OPS for the Padres and Astros organizations, while Constanza was at .712. Durango went 28/42 on the basepaths over 108 games, while Constanza went 23/31. Comparing power, Constanza and Durango had the same pathetic ISO of .039. 

Neither guy is ideal for a major league roster, but comparing the two, it looks like Constanza is the better player. With him around, I don't see any reason that the Braves would let Durango get extended playing time in the majors unless Constanza gets hurt. Even then, neither player looks like much of a major league stalwart, and appears to be AAA filler. With the expected promotions of Cory Harrilchak and Mycal Jones to Gwinnett, I don't think Durango will even get a ton of playing time there.

Check out Durango's projection on THT here 

When the Braves acquired Matt Diaz from the Pittsburgh Pirates at the end of August, I was vehemently opposed to the move for several reasons.

1) Fredi Gonzalez would feel inclined to start Diaz in right field over Jason Heyward when lefties were on the mound.
2) Diaz's effectiveness against lefties in 2011 had dropped off to the point where he had no purpose on the team aside from a pinch hitting role.
3) He was under contract for 2012 for $2.125 million, and his presence on the roster next season would really hamstring the team.

Sure enough, all of those were true. In the 16 games Diaz got into as a Brave, he got 37 plate appearances, which clearly means there were some starts in there (probably in the neighborhood of eight or ten). His struggles with the bat continued in Atlanta, as his overall line with the Braves was .286/.297/.314. In those 37 plate appearances, he walked just one time and had one extra base hit (a double). Against lefties, his line with the Braves was .296/.310/.333 over 29 plate appearances. For comparison's sake, Jason Heyward's 2011 line against lefties was .192/.270/.308...so while Heyward's batting average was lower thanks to a .228 BABIP (Diaz's was .333), he showed the ability to take a walk and get extra base hits, something that Diaz didn't show. 

In 2012, I don't see a potential spot for Diaz on the Braves roster, and the team might be forced to eat some salary in order to get him off the team. He's the fourth outfielder right now that can only hit lefties, so that's not really a good fourth outfielder, huh? He's not great defensively (+2 DRS over his career), he's not fast (33 career stolen bases)...his only role is to hit lefties, and he couldn't do that at all last season. If Diaz has a spring that resembles his 2011 season when it comes to hitting lefties, I don't see any way that the Braves can keep him on the Opening Day roster. For as much of an anti-Constanza guy as I am, I'd rather have him on the Opening Day roster than Diaz if you base things solely on their 2011 seasons.

Photo courtesy of Daylife.com 

Randall Delgado made a lot of strides in 2011, ending up in the major league rotation to finish the season, but at the end of the day, there is still a lot of room for improvement.

Delgado's year started in Mississippi, where he started 21 games and threw 117 1/3 innings. In his stint at Mississippi, he struck out 110, walked 46, and allowed 11 homers, all coming together to give him a 3.82 FIP.

He took a step back after being promoted to Gwinnett, where in four starts, Delgado threw 21 2/3 innings while striking out 25, walking 11, and allowing four homers. That is a 4.82 FIP stint in AAA.

Then in Atlanta, Delgado would get seven starts over the course of the season. Despite a 2.83 ERA, Delgado threw just 35 innings in his seven starts, striking out 18, walking 14, and allowing five homers. That's a 5.14 FIP, over two runs higher than his ERA.

At the end of the day, Delgado is a fantastic prospect, especially when you consider that he threw 174 innings over three levels at age 21. That's an admirable thing. Regardless of all that, and his low ERA in the majors last year, Delgado is absolutely not ready for the majors. He showed that he wasn't ready during his stint at Gwinnett, where he allowed too many homers and walked too many batters. But because of injuries, he was given the shot in the major league rotation, and he held his own.

With the Braves glut of starting pitching right now, Delgado is probably seventh overall among starting pitchers on Atlanta's depth chart, behind the five major league starters and top prospect Julio Teheran. I'd put him above Arodys Vizcaino due to Vizcaino's use in the bullpen last year and his unsure future as a starter or a reliever. At any rate, Delgado will be starting his year in Gwinnett, with another shot in Atlanta looming in case of an injury to one of the starters. I'd assume that the decision on whether or not to call up Teheran or him would be based on who's scheduled start is closest to the needed start, much like it was last season.

At any rate, we should be seeing Delgado again very soon. But it won't be on Opening Day at Citi Field.

Check out Delgado's projection on THT here

Photo credit to Joe Lucia