Bobby Cox has picked his final team. He's named the three players who will fill the final three open roster spots remaining for Opening Day. The last job on the bench goes to Brooks Conrad over Joe Thurston, with Frank Wren saying during today's telecast that the two primary factors were that Conrad was already on the 40-man roster, and can switch-hit. Not entirely sure I agree with that decision, since I like Thurston's utility in the field, but at the end of the day, you're talking about a guy playing a couple times a week at most, and Thurston stays around at Triple-A as a hot-swappable piece should Conrad falter. The two spots in the bullpen go to Jesse Chavez and Jo-Jo Reyes, leaving Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters on the outside looking in. I think this is the right decision with Reyes; he's got nothing left to prove at Gwinnett, and it's high time they figured out what if anything he is good for. Chavez I'm not so excited about. His work in Pittsburgh last year was decidedly pedestrian (if not worse), and he's done nothing this spring to suggest he's made significant strides since then. Some of the scoutier types might be intrigued by his stuff, but isn't that something you can see just fine at Gwinnett, and let him use it in The Show when he's proven it works? I'm not sure Kimbrel is the solution either, and Venters would give the 'pen four lefties, but how about a guy like Cory Gearrin? Maybe I'm reaching, but Chavez seems like a bit too much like a second coming of Manny Acosta for my liking. Hopefully Cox will restrict Chavez to low-leverage work in the earlygoing to see what we've got on our hands.

All in all, I'm feeling optimistic in spite of myself. Bring on baseball!

Baseball Prospectus prospect guru Kevin Goldstein brings us the following nugget from a scout on recent Braves signee Edward Salcedo:

"I saw where you wrote that he'd be around No. 5 on your Braves list, and that's way too low. He's not a shortstop, but he has a hose and huge power. Get ready for that guy."

Maybe one of the scoutier types around here can tell me what's meant by a "hose." Maybe his arm (which is said to be very, very strong)? Whatever it means, it sounds dangerous. Reader NickS kindly confirms that this scout does indeed use "hose" to refer to Salcedo's cannon of a right arm. You heard the scout. Get ready.

In far more pointless minor-league news, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star tells us the Braves refused their right to take back lefty Edgar Osuna, whom the Royals selected in the Rule 5 Draft. Osuna allowed 12 earned runs in 10 innings this spring, so it's not like the Braves miss him much; if they thought highly of him, they'd have protected him in the first place.

We looked at the spring training position battles on offense yesterday, so today we turn to the open slots on the pitching staff.  The rotation is set, and four bullpen slots will obviously go to Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito, Peter Moylan and Eric O'Flaherty.  There was an argument to be made that Kris Medlen needed to show up strong in order to solidify his role as Bullpen Guy #5, but it's safe to say he's made more good impressions and will be on the roster.

If there's a civilized duel brewing between Brooks Conrad and Joe Thurston--both regarded as high-character players--for the final spot on the bench, there's an no-holds-barred free-for-all going on in the bullpen. Jeff Lyman, Mike Dunn and Mariano Gomez were shown the exit in the last round of cuts, leaving six guys competing for the final two spots in the 'pen. It's time to meet the contestants:

The Tease...Manny Acosta. Acosta's name was mentioned in trade whispers early this week, which can't be a good sign for the rail-thin righty's chances of making the Opening Day roster. Acosta has the stuff to succeed in a major-league bullpen, with mid-90s heat that touches 98, and two worthwhile breaking pitches. But the annals of minor-league baseball are littered with hundreds of those guys, who for whatever reason just couldn't find the consistency to turn stuff into success. Acosta struggles mightily with his location sometimes, which leads him to walk hitters and serve up meatballs that major-league hitters regularly deposit in the stands. The Braves (and their fans) have seen enough of Acosta to know that he can't be trusted in key situations, so perhaps Wren is right to send him to another organization where fans don't know enough to cover their eyes when he enters the game.

The Well-Traveled...Jesse Chavez. The fruit of the Rafael Soriano trade for Atlanta, Chavez got a lot of press early in the spring that he might parlay his quality fastball (94.5 MPH average in 2009) and his plus change into a late-inning role in Atlanta. To say the least, he's been less than impressive. I don't normally like looking at spring stats, but for Chavez to make it through six spring innings with just one strikeout is pretty discouraging, especially when Chavez's primary "asset" is his live arm. There was nothing about Chavez's 2009 season to help his case either: his durability was really his only strong point. Like Acosta, he's got the tools to succeed, and unlike Acosta, he hasn't worn out his welcome in Atlanta. I don't think Chavez has done anything to merit an Opening Day bullpen spot, but he should at least get a chance to work with well-regarded pitching coach Derek Botelho at Gwinnett.

The Wild Man...Craig Kimbrel.  Kimbrel ranks pretty high on lots of Braves prospect lists, but I have to say I remain skeptical. There's no doubting his borderline ridiculous stuff: a 99 MPH fastball that generates considerable natural sink, plus a wipeout hammer curve, both delivered from a funky three-quarters arm slot. But he walked nearly a batter per inning in the minors last year, not to mention 16 in 10 1/3 AFL innings. Those walk totals only stand to rise in the majors if he doesn't improve his control. He struggles with a high-effort delivery and an inconsistent release point; he has to be able to work around those without losing his stuff, or else he simply won't be able to pitch in The Show. Perhaps no Braves prospect is so boom-or-bust: either he's going to find a way to refine his command, in which case he'll be a dominant closer, or else he's a career minor-leaguer. As far as this spring is concerned, I don't want to say he can't overcome his control woes, but I want to see it over an extended trial in the minors before I throw him into major-league games.

The Walking Wounded...Scott Proctor. I wasn't all that excited when our first real move of the offseason was to ink Tommy John recoveree Proctor, but it appears that Frank Wren may have made an intelligent gamble in signing him.  His fastball velocity had declined each year since Joe Torre put nearly 100 innings on Proctor's arm in 2006, but if surgery can restore the previous velo (94.4 MPH in '06), the Braves might have something on their hands. Proctor, like Acosta and Chavez above, relies on bringing heat, but in contrast to the other two, he actually has a legitimate track record of success. Before the huge innings totals began taking their toll, Proctor had a nice little career going: 7.6 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9 from 2004-2006. A little flyball- and homer-prone perhaps, but at least he was missing bats and avoiding the free pass. It's likely he'll be rusty after eleven months off, and the Braves lose an extra year of control by including him on their roster, but Bobby Cox sounds intent on having Proctor ready for Opening Day. With Acosta and Chavez doing nothing, and Kimbrel still having something to prove, I think there's a good chance Proctor breaks camp with the team.

The Dark Horse...Jonny Venters. Venters really wasn't on anybody's prospect radar coming into the 2009 season, after elbow tendinitis limited him to just 34 innings in 2008. He pitched scoreless ball in half of his 12 Southern League starts before getting a June promotion to Gwinnett, where he was considerably less successful (5.67 ERA in 17 starts). His fastball sits in the low-90s, so he doesn't miss many bats, but his control isn't anything to write home about either. Added to the 40-man roster to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft, he still didn't look like much: he barely eked his way into Baseball America's top 30 Braves prospects at #30. But he's had a very good camp, and aside from his left-handedness, he uses his sinker to generate groundballs (1.69 GO/AO ratio in '09, and four grounders for every fly this spring). He doesn't have enough upside to make it worthwhile to leave him in Triple-A to start, so if he's ever going to have a time, it's likely now. I'd be intrigued to see if he couldn't be a left-handed Kevin Gryboski-esque double-play specialist.

Honestly, I think my two favorites here are Reyes and Venters. Kimbrel needs more time in the oven, Acosta needs to be traded, and Chavez could use some time at Gwinnett to iron out some kinks. It can't hurt to let Proctor get further out from his surgery (remember how rusty Moylan was early last year after coming back early), not to mention we can control him for an extra year by not carrying him right away. Reyes and Venters are both guys with nothing left to learn at Triple-A, who need to get their shot and either stick or be let go. But with both of those guys being left-handed, I think it's more likely that Reyes sticks and Venters gets sent back to Gwinnett. The way Bobby Cox has been talking, Proctor will get that last spot. My money says Proctor and Reyes make the team.

Thoughts?

Every team goes into spring training with some "camp battles," where players have to impress the brass in order to win a job on the Opening Day roster.  The Braves had exceptionally few of those battles this year, and while the fields of contenders have narrowed, it appears most of the fights will go right down to the wire. Here's what you need to know about the open spots and the guys hoping to fill them.

To give my analysis a bit of background, let me link to the world's most useless baseball evaluation webpage. Spring training stats, in my mind, are as close to meaningless as numbers get.  You're talking about 45 at-bats, for the current team leader.  That's worse than an insignificant sample, since guys are facing wildly varying levels of pitching competition: veterans working on new pitches, minor leaguers not even close to ready for The Show, etc.  I will discuss some of the subjective things I've read about these various players in camp, but I'm not going to bother with their stats at all.

With that out of the way, I present the open slots.  There was a spot open in the starting outfield when camp opened up in Orlando, but let's face it: at the rate he's going, they're going to forget the Disney part and rename the place HeywardWorld.  This is a post for another time, but people who've read me know I wanted Heyward in the minors on Opening Day, but the kid has surpassed my every expectation and several experts I trust seem to think he's truly ready.  Admittedly late, I'm on that bandwagon.

It's becoming increasingly clear that Heyward will play right field on Opening Day, leaving just one roster spot up for grabs on offense. With Matt Diaz covering fourth outfielder duty, Eric Hinske backing up the four corners, Omar Infante doing everything but selling hot dogs, and Melky Cabrera able to spot in center field if needed, there's a pretty obvious hole for another utility infielder, preferably one that can handle the middle infield. Diory Hernandez tried his hand at that last year, but offseason shoulder surgery will keep him on the sidelines.  Freddie Freeman and Brandon Hicks are still in camp, but neither of them has played above Double-A, and they're just around to show off at this stage.  That leaves us two contenders: Brooks Conrad and Joe Thurston.  Conrad and Thurston actually have quite a bit in common, in that they are both Triple-A lifers who've done nothing in the majors to suggest they merit a major-league job.  Conrad has some pop in his bat, and while he's "versatile" in that he'll put a glove on and stand where you tell him to, he really doesn't have a defensive position in the infield.  Thurston, on the other hand, won't hit for power (if he hits at all), but he won't embarrass himself playing second or third.  I'm really not a fan of either of these guys, and really wouldn't mind seeing Frank Wren get grabby on the waiver wire, but forced to choose between the two I'll take Thurston since I don't think Conrad has the "utility" to be a "utilityman."

On Tuesday, Mark Bowman filled space on MLB.com by writing an article that basically says Frank Wren might or might not make a trade between now and Opening Day.  Buried at the bottom, however, is this intriguing little nugget: "But there's certainly a chance he could attempt to enhance his organizational depth at the Minor League level if he could find a team willing to trade for either right-handed reliever Manny Acosta or outfielder Gregor Blanco."

This is an interesting insight into the Braves' plans going forward, on a few levels.  It tells us that Acosta and Blanco--who are both still in major-league camp--may not figure very prominently into the Braves future plans.  Blanco's exclusion comes as no surprise, as there's really no room for him on the major-league roster, but Acosta is at least notionally still competing for a spot in the Braves' bullpen.  It also doesn't surprise me that there are two names mentioned, since I think Wren will probably want to clear two 40-man roster spots in the coming weeks: one for Jason Heyward (duh), and one for either utilityman Sloppy Joe Thurston or another assorted reliever not on the 40-man roster.

The ultimate point here, however, is that I highly doubt Wren is going to find a trade partner willing to actually give up anything of value for Acosta or Blanco.  Wren isn't thinking big...all he wants is "just some small pieces that would give us depth at Triple-A or wherever." But isn't that exactly what he's got in Acosta and Blanco? Are they really anything more than "Triple-A depth"? And they take up 40-man roster spots, since it's not like a club is going to trade for them just to pass them through waivers right away.  Maybe some team would take a chance on Acosta's tantalizing potential, but I'm no believer that he'll ever become reliable enough to hold down a roster spot for longer than a month at a time.  Blanco also might entice somebody with his semblance of on-base skills, but the Braves clearly have no place for him other than Gwinnett (heck, they didn't even call him up last year when rosters expanded).

The point is this: these are both guys I'd rather see cut than on the team on Opening Day, especially if they're getting in the way of a non-roster player making the team.  Maybe Wren can find a team that'll trade Todd Redmond for Tyler Yates all over again, but my guess is that push will come to shove and we'll see Acosta and/or Blanco designated for assignment in the next couple weeks.

Jair Jurrjens will finally get a chance to pitch tomorrow. After scaring the living daylights out of me, he appears to be coming along just fine... for the most part. He threw batting practice and didn't feel any pain yesterday, so the Braves cleared him to start against the Yankees tomorrow night. But Bobby Cox had this to say: "JJ was on the money most of the time... He was good. He's ready to go."

What does "most of the time" mean? You got me. But for right now, I'm optimistic.

As a followup to Peter Hjort's Chipper Jones piece below, I wrote a blog post about a recent Tim Marchman list ranking baseball's 30 general managers. As I wrote:

Wren came in 17th, just behind Jim Hendry.  Somehow, Andy MacPhail is 12th, Dave Dombrowski is 13th, and Tony Reagins is 15th... I feel that Marchman’s list gives too much credit for Lifetime Achievement.

Marchman wrote a small followup on his blog that Peter pointed out to me, in which he acknowledges that "General Manager" in his piece "is a metonym for the work done by dozens of different people under certain specific conditions... it is a contrivance." He doesn't really address my point, but he makes a valid point nonetheless. He's a good writer, even if he totally hosed Frank Wren.

I've been on the Braves blogosphere for quite a few years now, and there are few writers I respect more than Peter Hjort. We go back a long time on Mac Thomason's Braves Journal, and he and I both started blogging on our own around the same time. He runs Capitol Avenue Club, the best sabermetric Braves blog on the web. We're trying out a content-sharing agreement between our two blogs, to see if we can both benefit. Let us know what you think!

Chipper Jones is a Braves legend. Whenever he hangs up the spikes, his number is going to be retired, he'll immediately go into the Braves hall of fame, and he'll be headed for the Baseball Hall of Fame shortly there after. It's a blessing to have such a gifted player on your team, period--much less for sixteen years--and watching Chipper develop and rake over the past two decades has been a delight for Braves fans, team mates, executives, and owners alike.

However, stated plainly, Chipper is getting old. 2010 will be his age 38 season and players don't hit forever. After Chipper suffered what was probably the worst season of his career since 1995 (his rookie year) in 2009, it's appropriate to question how much Chipper has left in the tank. In order to come up with a good answer as to what to expect from Chipper going forward, it's important to understand where he's been.

Chipper's success has been primarily a product of his balanced offensive production. He's the rare type of player that hits for a high average, walks a lot, and hits for power. He's one of 14 players to play 2,000 career games and post a batting average of at least .300, an on base average of at least .400, and a slugging average of at least .500*. The kind of offensive balance and production Chipper has been able to sustain over the years is beyond remarkable, it's legendary. However, said balance in production leads to complications when attempting to isolate, quantify, and predict the various offensive attributes.

Rather than trying to separate the components of on base average or slugging average, I prefer to start from scratch and examine this as a problem of primary and secondary production. The metrics I've chosen to represent the two components are, naturally, batting average and secondary average. Quite simply, how much a player produces via hit and how much a player produces via anything other than a hit--on a rate basis in both cases. The linear combination of these two metrics yields a metric called APS (average plus secondary). Think of APS like OPS, only it doesn't double-count for hits (so the totals are going to be lower) and isn't a pile of mathematical gibberish. The formula for APS is (TB+BB+SB-CS)/AB.

Chipper Jones owns a career .307 batting average and a career .411 secondary average, good for a .718 APS. For perspective's sake, last year the average NL 3B posted a .261 batting average and a .271 secondary average (.532 APS). In 2009, however, Chipper's APS experienced a sharp decline. His .643 mark still rated about 110 points above league average for an NL 3B, but it rates 74 points below his career average and 145 points below his 2008 mark of .788 (the second highest of his career). But, looking at one year trends isn't particularly productive and I could explain this until I'm blue in the face, but, instead, I'd like to present the information visually:

Click to see some spectacular charts, and even more analysis...