A tale in two parts:
Part 1: Exposition
Take a moment to be glad that I'm not riffing on 'scatty,' then briefly scold @cgros127 for using 'FWI', which is not an acronym for anything useful.
Now, take a moment to stretch and get yourself a drink, 'cause this is officially intermission. We're about to dive into the good stuff.
Part 2: Rememberance and Extrapolation
Rememberance: Y'all recall the TV show Doug? Not the awful version from ABC, but the one from Nickelodeon? I assume you do, because '90s nostalgia accounts for ... well, whatever percent of internet traffic isn't devoted to Netflix, porn, and making dumb comments (admittedly, that's relatively low). And if you do, then you might happen to have a few faint strands of the lyrics to this tune bouncing around in your grey matter ...
Extrapolation: Luis Durango brushes his hair with a cactus and wears a snake for a belt. This has nothing whatsoever to do with his being an effective baseball player; all I'm saying is that whatever hair remains on his head after the cactus brushing (you'll note Doug's sparse foliage up top) quickly falls out under the stress of repeated haranguing and death threats from PETA.
And I hope he wears a sturdy cup, because I can't say that's where I'd leave the fanged snake's head were I to tie it around my waist.
Part 3: Epilogue
Luis Durango is a latter-day Jose Constanza, and has finally ascended to the stage whereupon he will embrace his ultimate destiny in life: driving a wedge between Braves fans in exactly the same way as his spiritual predecessor did a scant few months ago.
no comments
Part 1: Exposition
Take a moment to be glad that I'm not riffing on 'scatty,' then briefly scold @cgros127 for using 'FWI', which is not an acronym for anything useful.
Now, take a moment to stretch and get yourself a drink, 'cause this is officially intermission. We're about to dive into the good stuff.
Part 2: Rememberance and Extrapolation
Rememberance: Y'all recall the TV show Doug? Not the awful version from ABC, but the one from Nickelodeon? I assume you do, because '90s nostalgia accounts for ... well, whatever percent of internet traffic isn't devoted to Netflix, porn, and making dumb comments (admittedly, that's relatively low). And if you do, then you might happen to have a few faint strands of the lyrics to this tune bouncing around in your grey matter ...
Extrapolation: Luis Durango brushes his hair with a cactus and wears a snake for a belt. This has nothing whatsoever to do with his being an effective baseball player; all I'm saying is that whatever hair remains on his head after the cactus brushing (you'll note Doug's sparse foliage up top) quickly falls out under the stress of repeated haranguing and death threats from PETA.
And I hope he wears a sturdy cup, because I can't say that's where I'd leave the fanged snake's head were I to tie it around my waist.
Part 3: Epilogue
Luis Durango is a latter-day Jose Constanza, and has finally ascended to the stage whereupon he will embrace his ultimate destiny in life: driving a wedge between Braves fans in exactly the same way as his spiritual predecessor did a scant few months ago.
no comments
10. Zeke Spruill
Injury issues. Maturity questions. There was a lot of turbulation surrounding Spruill going into 2011. What he did was nothing short of outstanding. As a 21 year-old, Spruill spent about 2/3 of his year with Lynchburg, and 1/3 with Mississippi. While a Hillcat, Spruill threw 130 innings in 22 starts, struck out 92 and walked 23. He threw a minor league-leading six complete games as well. Once getting the bump to Mississippi, his dominance waned, but only slightly. In seven starts, Spruill threw 45 innings, walked 17 and struck out 16. He is an absolute groundball machine and does a fantastic job at keeping the ball in the park. He'll start off at Mississippi and attempt to master that league, with a promotion to Gwinnett looming.
THT Projection
9. Andrelton Simmons
Simmons has quickly become one of the highest regarded prospects, but I'm not necessarily sipping the Kool-Aid quite as heavily as others. In his first full year, Simmons was moved up to Lynchburg, where he showed he was a defensive whiz with a cannon arm, with THT grading his defense as two wins above replacement level. His bat is good for a middle infielder, with a line of .311/.344/.408 last year, but the lack of power really worries me. Simmons also has interesting plate discipline, as he doesn't strike out (43) or walk (29) a lot. At the end of the day, I'd really like to see him add some more walks and some more power to his game before I proclaim him a top 100 prospect.
THT Projection
8. Tyler Pastornicky
We went with the more advanced shortstop prospect over the one with the higher upside, so sue us. Playing with Mississippi for most of 2011, Pastornicky hit .299/.334/.414 with 34 strikeouts and 24 walks in just 91 games. He earned a late season promotion to Gwinnett, where he hit .365/.393/.414. His power disappeared after the promotion, but he's still doing all of this on offense at a higher level than Simmons, at a younger age (about three months younger, to be exact). The 22 year-old will start 2012 as Atlanta's starting shortstop, and there is some disaster potential here after just a month's worth of games at AAA.
THT Projection
7. Christian Bethancourt
Bethancourt played all of 2011 as a 19 year-old, which many fans aren't considering when looking at his progress as a prospect. In 54 games at Rome, he hit .303/.323/.430 before earning a promotion to Lynchburg, where he struggled to a .271/.274/.325 line in 46 games. The plate discipline is obviously an issue, as he walked just 11 times in 100 games. But Bethancourt's power definitely took a step forward after an ugly 2010 (at age 18!), and his performance in the AFL this fall was impressive, as he hit .306/.324/.556. The five AFL homers he hit matched his season total in just 20 games. Bethancourt is still growing and maturing, and this is a prospect list, not a "sure thing" list. Bethancourt is still an excellent prospect, despite people jumping off the bandwagon left and right.
THT Projection
6. JJ Hoover
Hoover turned himself from a middle of the road starting pitching prospect into a potentially dominant relief prospect in 2011, and that certainly helps his long-term value. In 13 2/3 innings out of the bullpen for Gwinnett after being promoted from Mississippi, Hoover struck out 25 and walked just six, while not allowing an earned run in the process. This is a guy who's role has completely changed from April to August, and now as a reliever, his career has a second life. I'd expect him to start the year in Gwinnett to get more of a feel for his new role as a reliever, and possibly earning a callup to Atlanta in the late summer.
THT Projection no comments
Injury issues. Maturity questions. There was a lot of turbulation surrounding Spruill going into 2011. What he did was nothing short of outstanding. As a 21 year-old, Spruill spent about 2/3 of his year with Lynchburg, and 1/3 with Mississippi. While a Hillcat, Spruill threw 130 innings in 22 starts, struck out 92 and walked 23. He threw a minor league-leading six complete games as well. Once getting the bump to Mississippi, his dominance waned, but only slightly. In seven starts, Spruill threw 45 innings, walked 17 and struck out 16. He is an absolute groundball machine and does a fantastic job at keeping the ball in the park. He'll start off at Mississippi and attempt to master that league, with a promotion to Gwinnett looming.
THT Projection
9. Andrelton Simmons
Simmons has quickly become one of the highest regarded prospects, but I'm not necessarily sipping the Kool-Aid quite as heavily as others. In his first full year, Simmons was moved up to Lynchburg, where he showed he was a defensive whiz with a cannon arm, with THT grading his defense as two wins above replacement level. His bat is good for a middle infielder, with a line of .311/.344/.408 last year, but the lack of power really worries me. Simmons also has interesting plate discipline, as he doesn't strike out (43) or walk (29) a lot. At the end of the day, I'd really like to see him add some more walks and some more power to his game before I proclaim him a top 100 prospect.
THT Projection
8. Tyler Pastornicky
We went with the more advanced shortstop prospect over the one with the higher upside, so sue us. Playing with Mississippi for most of 2011, Pastornicky hit .299/.334/.414 with 34 strikeouts and 24 walks in just 91 games. He earned a late season promotion to Gwinnett, where he hit .365/.393/.414. His power disappeared after the promotion, but he's still doing all of this on offense at a higher level than Simmons, at a younger age (about three months younger, to be exact). The 22 year-old will start 2012 as Atlanta's starting shortstop, and there is some disaster potential here after just a month's worth of games at AAA.
THT Projection
7. Christian Bethancourt
Bethancourt played all of 2011 as a 19 year-old, which many fans aren't considering when looking at his progress as a prospect. In 54 games at Rome, he hit .303/.323/.430 before earning a promotion to Lynchburg, where he struggled to a .271/.274/.325 line in 46 games. The plate discipline is obviously an issue, as he walked just 11 times in 100 games. But Bethancourt's power definitely took a step forward after an ugly 2010 (at age 18!), and his performance in the AFL this fall was impressive, as he hit .306/.324/.556. The five AFL homers he hit matched his season total in just 20 games. Bethancourt is still growing and maturing, and this is a prospect list, not a "sure thing" list. Bethancourt is still an excellent prospect, despite people jumping off the bandwagon left and right.
THT Projection
6. JJ Hoover
Hoover turned himself from a middle of the road starting pitching prospect into a potentially dominant relief prospect in 2011, and that certainly helps his long-term value. In 13 2/3 innings out of the bullpen for Gwinnett after being promoted from Mississippi, Hoover struck out 25 and walked just six, while not allowing an earned run in the process. This is a guy who's role has completely changed from April to August, and now as a reliever, his career has a second life. I'd expect him to start the year in Gwinnett to get more of a feel for his new role as a reliever, and possibly earning a callup to Atlanta in the late summer.
THT Projection no comments
15. Adam Milligan
The 23 year-old Milligan is a supremely talented individual....but he just cannot stay healthy. This season for Lynchburg, Milligan had a .902 OPS and 35 extra base hits, but only played in 64 games. The prior season, while playing for Myrtle Beach, Milligan struggled due to a shoulder injury and played in just 23 games with a .653 OPS. The most games Milligan has played in a season came in 2009 in short-season ball, where Milligan played in 67 games. When healthy, he is an absolute masher. His ISO in 2011 was .266. Milligan doesn't walk a ton, with just a 6.2% walk rate last season compared to a 29.5% strikeout rate. He reminds me a lot of Cody Johnson, with a lot fewer strikeouts. If he's ever healthy for a full season, look out.
THT Projection
14. JR Graham
The 2011 fourth round pick Graham burst onto the scene this season and immediately became a force in Danville's rotation. The 21 year-old struck out 52 while walking 13 in 57 2/3 innings while not allowing a homer, and he flashed a fastball that touched 98 miles per hour that Baseball America graded as the best in the Braves draft class last season. Graham's future may end up being in the bullpen, but for now, the Braves will keep running him out there as a starter. As a college arm, he could move quickly through the system, and he may not stay at Rome for long this spring.
THT Projection
13. Tommy La Stella
La Stella was an eighth round pick in the 2011 draft, and was named the best pure hitters in the Braves draft class by Baseball America. He skipped short season ball entirely and was sent to Rome, where he dominated. in 63 games, La Stella had a line of .328/.401/.543 with 27 extra base hits, 26 walks, and 28 strikeouts. As a college bat out of Coastal Carolina, the 23 year-old has already begun a quick march through the farm system. I'd expect him to start at Lynchburg, and depending on the play of Philip Gosselin in Mississippi, he could leapfrog him on the depth chart and take over there.
THT Projection
12. Joe Terdoslavich
Terdoslavich has leapt into the collective minds of Braves fans as a legitimate ace prospect after one good season in Lynchburg, where he OPSed .867 and hit a Carolina League record 52 doubles. The sixth round pick from 2010 had a fantastic first full season in the organization, and is on the cusp of being an elite prospect. But overall, he played the season as a 22 year-old in the low minors. While his performance was good, it wasn't truly dominant. His strike zone discipline still needs some sort after he struck out 107 times last year, but he isn't awful by any respect in that regard. If more of those doubles start going over the fence, look out. He seemingly solidified his performance in 2011 with a good showing in the AFL, OPSing .972 and making the league's All-Prospect team. I'm not sold on him as an elite prospect quite yet, though. One more season like 2011, and I'll be picking up the Kool-Aid.
THT Projection
11. Carlos Perez
I don't think any prospect's stock took more of a hit in 2011 than Perez's. Initially expected to follow in the footsteps of Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino, and Randall Delgado, Perez fell short of expectations in 2011. In 125 innings, he struck out 109 and walked 66, resulting in a slight increase of his strikeout rate from 7.15 to 7.85 and an increase in walk rate from 3.92 to an unsightly 4.75 per nine innings. But there still is a lot to love with Perez. His stuff is excellent, he kept the ball on the ground pretty well, and he was plagued by bad luck last season, with a .323 BABIP and a horrendous 59.4% strand rate. Plus, he didn't turn 20 years-old until the season ended. Maybe we all set our expectations a little high for Perez, but we can all breathe a little easier if he comes out guns ablazing to start the 2012 season.
THT Projection no comments
The 23 year-old Milligan is a supremely talented individual....but he just cannot stay healthy. This season for Lynchburg, Milligan had a .902 OPS and 35 extra base hits, but only played in 64 games. The prior season, while playing for Myrtle Beach, Milligan struggled due to a shoulder injury and played in just 23 games with a .653 OPS. The most games Milligan has played in a season came in 2009 in short-season ball, where Milligan played in 67 games. When healthy, he is an absolute masher. His ISO in 2011 was .266. Milligan doesn't walk a ton, with just a 6.2% walk rate last season compared to a 29.5% strikeout rate. He reminds me a lot of Cody Johnson, with a lot fewer strikeouts. If he's ever healthy for a full season, look out.
THT Projection
14. JR Graham
The 2011 fourth round pick Graham burst onto the scene this season and immediately became a force in Danville's rotation. The 21 year-old struck out 52 while walking 13 in 57 2/3 innings while not allowing a homer, and he flashed a fastball that touched 98 miles per hour that Baseball America graded as the best in the Braves draft class last season. Graham's future may end up being in the bullpen, but for now, the Braves will keep running him out there as a starter. As a college arm, he could move quickly through the system, and he may not stay at Rome for long this spring.
THT Projection
13. Tommy La Stella
La Stella was an eighth round pick in the 2011 draft, and was named the best pure hitters in the Braves draft class by Baseball America. He skipped short season ball entirely and was sent to Rome, where he dominated. in 63 games, La Stella had a line of .328/.401/.543 with 27 extra base hits, 26 walks, and 28 strikeouts. As a college bat out of Coastal Carolina, the 23 year-old has already begun a quick march through the farm system. I'd expect him to start at Lynchburg, and depending on the play of Philip Gosselin in Mississippi, he could leapfrog him on the depth chart and take over there.
THT Projection
12. Joe Terdoslavich
Terdoslavich has leapt into the collective minds of Braves fans as a legitimate ace prospect after one good season in Lynchburg, where he OPSed .867 and hit a Carolina League record 52 doubles. The sixth round pick from 2010 had a fantastic first full season in the organization, and is on the cusp of being an elite prospect. But overall, he played the season as a 22 year-old in the low minors. While his performance was good, it wasn't truly dominant. His strike zone discipline still needs some sort after he struck out 107 times last year, but he isn't awful by any respect in that regard. If more of those doubles start going over the fence, look out. He seemingly solidified his performance in 2011 with a good showing in the AFL, OPSing .972 and making the league's All-Prospect team. I'm not sold on him as an elite prospect quite yet, though. One more season like 2011, and I'll be picking up the Kool-Aid.
THT Projection
11. Carlos Perez
I don't think any prospect's stock took more of a hit in 2011 than Perez's. Initially expected to follow in the footsteps of Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino, and Randall Delgado, Perez fell short of expectations in 2011. In 125 innings, he struck out 109 and walked 66, resulting in a slight increase of his strikeout rate from 7.15 to 7.85 and an increase in walk rate from 3.92 to an unsightly 4.75 per nine innings. But there still is a lot to love with Perez. His stuff is excellent, he kept the ball on the ground pretty well, and he was plagued by bad luck last season, with a .323 BABIP and a horrendous 59.4% strand rate. Plus, he didn't turn 20 years-old until the season ended. Maybe we all set our expectations a little high for Perez, but we can all breathe a little easier if he comes out guns ablazing to start the 2012 season.
THT Projection no comments
Jaye Chapman is a guy who I think is going to be seriously considered for a slot in the major league bullpen this spring. Chapman had a fantastic season, split between Mississippi and Gwinnett. Between the two levels, he struck out 77 while walking 31 in 68 1/3 innings. While the walk rate is a little high, it's not at the point of someone like Billy Bullock's, which is just a little too high. It's manageable.
A few down notes for Chapman, though. The six homers he allowed were maybe one or two too many, but not overly high. One benefit to him is the high amount of groundballs he gets, 1.47 for every ball in the air. It's not an extreme rate like Cory Gearrin produces, but it's very good. The 24 year-old Chapman was also the lucky recipient of a very low BABIP, .232 this season.
I marked Chapman as a player to watch after 2010, because his luck was awful. Despite ERAs over 5.00 in Myrtle Beach and Mississippi, his BABIPs were very high (.321 at Myrtle Beach and an absurd .378 in Mississippi). His strand rates were also hideous, at 57.7% in Myrtle Beach and 61.2% in Mississippi. He upped that strand rate to 100% in Mississippi this season, and 78% in Gwinnett. Like I said, with a little luck on his side, Chapman would be looked at as a completely different pitcher.
I think Chapman can honestly contend for a slot in the bullpen, and after a couple of free agent departures (Scott Linebrink, George Sherrill), there are some openings. Chapman could earn one of those spots with a solid spring, and I hope the Braves give him a fair shot.
Check out Chapman's player projection at THT. no comments
A few down notes for Chapman, though. The six homers he allowed were maybe one or two too many, but not overly high. One benefit to him is the high amount of groundballs he gets, 1.47 for every ball in the air. It's not an extreme rate like Cory Gearrin produces, but it's very good. The 24 year-old Chapman was also the lucky recipient of a very low BABIP, .232 this season.
I marked Chapman as a player to watch after 2010, because his luck was awful. Despite ERAs over 5.00 in Myrtle Beach and Mississippi, his BABIPs were very high (.321 at Myrtle Beach and an absurd .378 in Mississippi). His strand rates were also hideous, at 57.7% in Myrtle Beach and 61.2% in Mississippi. He upped that strand rate to 100% in Mississippi this season, and 78% in Gwinnett. Like I said, with a little luck on his side, Chapman would be looked at as a completely different pitcher.
I think Chapman can honestly contend for a slot in the bullpen, and after a couple of free agent departures (Scott Linebrink, George Sherrill), there are some openings. Chapman could earn one of those spots with a solid spring, and I hope the Braves give him a fair shot.
Check out Chapman's player projection at THT. no comments
When the Braves acquired Billy Bullock from the Minnesota Twins last spring in exchange for Scott Diamond, Braves fans were awash with optimism. Bullock is a live-armed reliever with potential to be a stud, while Diamond is just kind of a fifth starter/spot reliever kind of guy who didn't figure into the Braves plans at all in 2011.
In repeating AA in 2011, most of us expected Bullock to have an absolutely dominant year, get his control in order, and become a possible bullpen option for the Braves in 2012. That....didn't exactly happen. While Bullock struck out 65 in 50 innings, his strikeout rate fell from 12.8 per nine innings to 11.8 per nine innings. Perhaps more interestingly, the control that we all expected to improve really didn't, as Bullock's walk rate actually rose, from 5.3 per nine innings to 6.2 per nine innings.
Bullock obviously still has a lot of value as a tall (6'6"), hard-throwing reliever. But at the end of the day, if he keeps walking the lineup, he's not going to crack the show. I think he can roll at Gwinnett in 2012 in kind of a "sink or swim" type situation, needing to get his control fixed before he's even allowed to sniff the show. While his overpowering stuff is very enticing, I just can't get behind him as a full-time reliever in the majors until he gets his walk rate below four batters per nine innings, which based on his 2011 totals, would mean cutting out about a dozen walks per season. It's a tall order, and if he's able to do it, he can be a stud in the majors. But if not, he'll end up being just another live arm who couldn't put it all together.
Check out Bullock's player projection on THT here. no comments
In repeating AA in 2011, most of us expected Bullock to have an absolutely dominant year, get his control in order, and become a possible bullpen option for the Braves in 2012. That....didn't exactly happen. While Bullock struck out 65 in 50 innings, his strikeout rate fell from 12.8 per nine innings to 11.8 per nine innings. Perhaps more interestingly, the control that we all expected to improve really didn't, as Bullock's walk rate actually rose, from 5.3 per nine innings to 6.2 per nine innings.
Bullock obviously still has a lot of value as a tall (6'6"), hard-throwing reliever. But at the end of the day, if he keeps walking the lineup, he's not going to crack the show. I think he can roll at Gwinnett in 2012 in kind of a "sink or swim" type situation, needing to get his control fixed before he's even allowed to sniff the show. While his overpowering stuff is very enticing, I just can't get behind him as a full-time reliever in the majors until he gets his walk rate below four batters per nine innings, which based on his 2011 totals, would mean cutting out about a dozen walks per season. It's a tall order, and if he's able to do it, he can be a stud in the majors. But if not, he'll end up being just another live arm who couldn't put it all together.
Check out Bullock's player projection on THT here. no comments
I am way behind on these. I know, I suck. Going to get a few of these done today and tomorrow to get back on track.The Braves acquired Bourn on July 31st last year from the Houston Astros for a quartet of minor leaguers, none of whom the team will really miss: Jordan Schafer (a center fielder who failed in multiple stints in the majors), Juan Abreu (live-armed reliever who never got a chance in the majors), Brett Oberholtzer and Paul Clemens (both of whom could be back-end starters in the majors, but lack the upside of many of the pitching prospects in the system). The Braves wanted him to provide a spark, and to a certain extent, he did.
Bourn wasn't as much of an impact player as the Braves expected, with just a .673 OPS (and an ugly .321 OBP) during his 53 game stint in Atlanta. His defense wasn't as good as expected, logging just +2 DRS in center (compared to +12 in 2009 and +16 in 2010). However, the one facet of his game that did come as advertised was his speed. Bourn stole 22 bases in his 53, putting him on pace to perhaps steal 70 over a full year.
The Braves really aren't known as a running team, but you have to imagine that with Bourn in the fold for a full season, the shackles will come off a bit, and he'll get carte blanche on the basepaths. If Bourn is able to up his OBP to the .350 range that it was as he became a commodity with the Astros over the past couple of seasons, and his defense rebounds to the stellar level it was at, Bourn will absolutely be a catalyst for the Braves in center.
With Bourn entering free agency after the 2012 season, the Braves are in an interesting position with him. The system lacks a high upside center field prospect that could take over in 2013 if Bourn leaves town, with the possible exception of Mycal Jones, who had a vastly disappointing 2011 season. If Jones is able to turn his game around in 2012 and looks like he could be a full-time guy in the majors, I could definitely see the Braves letting Bourn walk. Bourn will be 30 at the end of the season, and once you get up to that age, speed starts to slip....and without his speed, what kind of player is Bourn? That's why I'd be hesitant to give him a long-term extension, but we'll play it by ear depending on what exactly happens in 2012.
Check out Bourn's player projection on THT here.
Photo credit to Joe Lucia no comments
For #30-21, click here
20. Kyle Kubitza
Kubitza, a third round pick in 2011, immediately showed flashes of brilliance during his professional debut in Danville. The 21 year-old OPSed .880, and showed a very complete game, with 24 walks in 190 plate appearances, nine stolen bases (caught three times), and a .164 ISO. One thing that concerns me is the one home run he hit, but he never really showed a ton of homer potential in college, with a career high of 11 homers. If some of Kubitza's doubles manage to go over the fence, he could be a legitimate star in the making. I assume he'll be starting off in Rome, but as a college bat, could move very fast, especially with his advanced game.
THT Forecast
19. Cody Martin
COLLEGE ARM ALERT! Martin was a seventh round pick in 2011, and moved quickly, ending the year in Rome. As Rome's closer to finish out the year, he struck out 49 (including his time in Danville) and walked just five in 33 1/3 innings. This is the type of guy that could absolutely zoom through the system, much like Craig Kimbrel did upon being drafted back in 2008. I wouldn't be shocked to see him finishing 2012 in Gwinnett, and threatening for a bullpen role in 2013.
THT Forecast
18. Nick Ahmed
When I wrote about Ahmed in his 2012 Player Preview, I noted that he could be a regular, or if his power doesn't pick up, he could end up being a utility type player. What I didn't know then was that he was battling injuries for most of 2011 that he suffered while playing at UConn, and wasn't healthy all season. But the point remains that even throughout his college career, Ahmed didn't show much power. He's got advanced plate discipline, and I could see him settling into a fifth infielder type of role, but if the power comes along, he could be a solid regular. I don't think he has the ceiling that Tyler Pastornicky or Andrelton Simmons has, though.
THT Forecast
17. Dimasther Delgado
I have been a huge fan of Delgado since he burst onto the scene in 2009 with Rome, and I don't think he was fully healthy for all of 2011 after missing 2010 with injuries suffered into a car accident. The Braves limited his innings in 2011, and his command of the strike zone didn't look like it was fully back. Delgado had a 4:1 strikeout to walk rate in 2009, and if he can regain that command of the strike zone, he could really be a superstar prospect, especially since he'll only be 23 once the season begins.
THT Forecast
16. Brandon Drury
Drury is one of the fast risers on prospect lists this offseason after a stellar season, mostly at age 18, in the Appalachian League. A .347/.367/.525 line is nothing to sneeze at, especially at his young age, but there is a lot of room for improvement, primarily in his plate disicpline. Drury walked just six times in 278 plate appearances, which is absolutely unacceptable for a potential major leaguer. He did have 31 extra base hits in 65 games, and if some of those doubles start popping over the fence, he could be a potentially elite prospect.
THT Forecast no comments
20. Kyle Kubitza
Kubitza, a third round pick in 2011, immediately showed flashes of brilliance during his professional debut in Danville. The 21 year-old OPSed .880, and showed a very complete game, with 24 walks in 190 plate appearances, nine stolen bases (caught three times), and a .164 ISO. One thing that concerns me is the one home run he hit, but he never really showed a ton of homer potential in college, with a career high of 11 homers. If some of Kubitza's doubles manage to go over the fence, he could be a legitimate star in the making. I assume he'll be starting off in Rome, but as a college bat, could move very fast, especially with his advanced game.
THT Forecast
19. Cody Martin
COLLEGE ARM ALERT! Martin was a seventh round pick in 2011, and moved quickly, ending the year in Rome. As Rome's closer to finish out the year, he struck out 49 (including his time in Danville) and walked just five in 33 1/3 innings. This is the type of guy that could absolutely zoom through the system, much like Craig Kimbrel did upon being drafted back in 2008. I wouldn't be shocked to see him finishing 2012 in Gwinnett, and threatening for a bullpen role in 2013.
THT Forecast
18. Nick Ahmed
When I wrote about Ahmed in his 2012 Player Preview, I noted that he could be a regular, or if his power doesn't pick up, he could end up being a utility type player. What I didn't know then was that he was battling injuries for most of 2011 that he suffered while playing at UConn, and wasn't healthy all season. But the point remains that even throughout his college career, Ahmed didn't show much power. He's got advanced plate discipline, and I could see him settling into a fifth infielder type of role, but if the power comes along, he could be a solid regular. I don't think he has the ceiling that Tyler Pastornicky or Andrelton Simmons has, though.
THT Forecast
17. Dimasther Delgado
I have been a huge fan of Delgado since he burst onto the scene in 2009 with Rome, and I don't think he was fully healthy for all of 2011 after missing 2010 with injuries suffered into a car accident. The Braves limited his innings in 2011, and his command of the strike zone didn't look like it was fully back. Delgado had a 4:1 strikeout to walk rate in 2009, and if he can regain that command of the strike zone, he could really be a superstar prospect, especially since he'll only be 23 once the season begins.
THT Forecast
16. Brandon Drury
Drury is one of the fast risers on prospect lists this offseason after a stellar season, mostly at age 18, in the Appalachian League. A .347/.367/.525 line is nothing to sneeze at, especially at his young age, but there is a lot of room for improvement, primarily in his plate disicpline. Drury walked just six times in 278 plate appearances, which is absolutely unacceptable for a potential major leaguer. He did have 31 extra base hits in 65 games, and if some of those doubles start popping over the fence, he could be a potentially elite prospect.
THT Forecast no comments
Here's how this is going to work. Today, I'm going to count down from #30 to #21, then I'll be doing five players a day for every other day of the week. It was tough to get 30 due to the state of the system right now, but here's what we've got. Enjoy.
30. Jean Carlos Gil
The 21 year-old Gil made his American debut last summer in the GCL, where he struck out 63 and walked 12 in 65 innings. Gil did a nice job at keeping the ball on the ground, and despite the relatively late start to his career in contrast to many Venezuelan pitchers, he still looks like he could have a bright future. I'd expect him to start the year in Danville, but if he has an impressive spring camp, I could see the Braves starting him in Rome.
THT Forecast
29. Navery Moore
The only pro experience Moore got in 2011 was in the AFL, where he walked five and struck out four in seven innings. Moore has a very live arm despite overall underwhelming numbers in his senior year at Vanderbilt, where he struck out 24 and walked 12 in 28 innings. He's also had Tommy John surgery in the past, which partially helps to explain the control problems exhibited during his final year at Vanderbilt. As a college reliever, he could start in Rome and move quickly.
THT Forecast
28. William Beckwith
The 21 year-old Beckwith has extraordinary power, and came into his own in 2011 during his season playing for Danville. His ISO increased from .143 to .252, and he even stole eight bases. Don't believe his listed weight of 220, because Beckwith is a big, big man. He'll probably start off in Rome and look to continue moving up through the system, because there is a definite lack of first base prospects in the organization.
THT Forecast
27. Todd Cunningham
The 22 year-old Cunningham has been in the organization for a couple of years, and his bat still really hasn't broken out yet, with an OPS under .700 in each of his pro stops, including in the AFL this year. Cunningham has good speed and is a good defensive player with the ability to play all three outfield positions, and he'll probably start the year in Mississippi despite his offensive limitations.
THT Forecast
26. Matt Lipka
Lipka's bat was an absolute disaster in 2011 after being drafted in the 2010 supplemental draft. His speed is good, but he was caught stealing in nearly a third of his attempts at Rome last year. He's being converted to center field in 2012, and because of that, I'd expect to see him start the year off in Rome again. Lipka won't turn 20 until after the season begins, so it's still way too early to give up on him, but it's not looking great so far.
THT Forecast
25. Billy Bullock
Acquired by the Braves from the Twins last spring in exchange for Scott Diamond, Bullock has an extremely live arm, but like most live arms, control can get the better of him. The soon-to-be 24 year-old is within spitting distance of the majors, and will probably start off in Gwinnett, but he's not going to get to the majors until he's able to walk less than four batters per nine innings. The control is just too much of a liability at this point.
THT Forecast
24. Cory Gearrin
Gearrin got his first taste of the majors in 2011, and really wasn't bad at all, thanks to an improved strikeout rate. Walks however, helped temper his expectations a little bit. At any rate, Gearrin's ability to get groundballs nearly at will should put him in competition for a bullpen spot in Atlanta in 2012, especially with the possible departure of injured minor league re-signee Peter Moylan.
THT Forecast
23. Jaye Chapman
Chapman is another guy that I think could sniff the 2011 bullpen, due in part to maturation as a pitcher. He split the season between Mississippi and Gwinnett, striking out more than a batter per inning at each stop and keeping his walks under control as well. Chapman's batted ball results were also pretty good, and while that may not translate pretty well to the major leagues, I think he's in a better position to contribute in 2012 than a good bit of the relievers in the system.
THT Forecast
22. Philip Gosselin
Gosselin's bat looked good last season in his first professional season after coming out of the University of Virginia, but it dropped off in 2011. He kind of just looks like a utility infielder at this point in time, but if the bat is able to turn around, maybe he can be more. But right now, I'm seeing a ceiling of a David Eckstein type player.
THT Forecast
21. Mycal Jones
A foot injury and a DWI arrest sabotaged Jones's 2011 season, and I really have no doubt that these issues were a major cause for his disappointment offensively. A position change to center field was also on Jones's agenda in 2011, and he was actually really good defensively in center. His power, which helped set him apart from many middle infielders, disappeared last season, but he could rise up to top 15 or higher with a great 2012 season, which I think will happen in Gwinnett.
THT Forecast no comments
30. Jean Carlos Gil
The 21 year-old Gil made his American debut last summer in the GCL, where he struck out 63 and walked 12 in 65 innings. Gil did a nice job at keeping the ball on the ground, and despite the relatively late start to his career in contrast to many Venezuelan pitchers, he still looks like he could have a bright future. I'd expect him to start the year in Danville, but if he has an impressive spring camp, I could see the Braves starting him in Rome.
THT Forecast
29. Navery Moore
The only pro experience Moore got in 2011 was in the AFL, where he walked five and struck out four in seven innings. Moore has a very live arm despite overall underwhelming numbers in his senior year at Vanderbilt, where he struck out 24 and walked 12 in 28 innings. He's also had Tommy John surgery in the past, which partially helps to explain the control problems exhibited during his final year at Vanderbilt. As a college reliever, he could start in Rome and move quickly.
THT Forecast
28. William Beckwith
The 21 year-old Beckwith has extraordinary power, and came into his own in 2011 during his season playing for Danville. His ISO increased from .143 to .252, and he even stole eight bases. Don't believe his listed weight of 220, because Beckwith is a big, big man. He'll probably start off in Rome and look to continue moving up through the system, because there is a definite lack of first base prospects in the organization.
THT Forecast
27. Todd Cunningham
The 22 year-old Cunningham has been in the organization for a couple of years, and his bat still really hasn't broken out yet, with an OPS under .700 in each of his pro stops, including in the AFL this year. Cunningham has good speed and is a good defensive player with the ability to play all three outfield positions, and he'll probably start the year in Mississippi despite his offensive limitations.
THT Forecast
26. Matt Lipka
Lipka's bat was an absolute disaster in 2011 after being drafted in the 2010 supplemental draft. His speed is good, but he was caught stealing in nearly a third of his attempts at Rome last year. He's being converted to center field in 2012, and because of that, I'd expect to see him start the year off in Rome again. Lipka won't turn 20 until after the season begins, so it's still way too early to give up on him, but it's not looking great so far.
THT Forecast
25. Billy Bullock
Acquired by the Braves from the Twins last spring in exchange for Scott Diamond, Bullock has an extremely live arm, but like most live arms, control can get the better of him. The soon-to-be 24 year-old is within spitting distance of the majors, and will probably start off in Gwinnett, but he's not going to get to the majors until he's able to walk less than four batters per nine innings. The control is just too much of a liability at this point.
THT Forecast
24. Cory Gearrin
Gearrin got his first taste of the majors in 2011, and really wasn't bad at all, thanks to an improved strikeout rate. Walks however, helped temper his expectations a little bit. At any rate, Gearrin's ability to get groundballs nearly at will should put him in competition for a bullpen spot in Atlanta in 2012, especially with the possible departure of injured minor league re-signee Peter Moylan.
THT Forecast
23. Jaye Chapman
Chapman is another guy that I think could sniff the 2011 bullpen, due in part to maturation as a pitcher. He split the season between Mississippi and Gwinnett, striking out more than a batter per inning at each stop and keeping his walks under control as well. Chapman's batted ball results were also pretty good, and while that may not translate pretty well to the major leagues, I think he's in a better position to contribute in 2012 than a good bit of the relievers in the system.
THT Forecast
22. Philip Gosselin
Gosselin's bat looked good last season in his first professional season after coming out of the University of Virginia, but it dropped off in 2011. He kind of just looks like a utility infielder at this point in time, but if the bat is able to turn around, maybe he can be more. But right now, I'm seeing a ceiling of a David Eckstein type player.
THT Forecast
21. Mycal Jones
A foot injury and a DWI arrest sabotaged Jones's 2011 season, and I really have no doubt that these issues were a major cause for his disappointment offensively. A position change to center field was also on Jones's agenda in 2011, and he was actually really good defensively in center. His power, which helped set him apart from many middle infielders, disappeared last season, but he could rise up to top 15 or higher with a great 2012 season, which I think will happen in Gwinnett.
THT Forecast no comments
I missed this one yesterday....double shot of profiles coming today!JC Boscan isn't going to be threatening Brian McCann's job in Atlanta this season, and he's not going to be threatening David Ross's job either. Boscan is what he is: a career minor league catcher who has only brief cups of coffee in the majors as a third catcher. He's been in the Braves organization since 2008, and has spent time in Gwinnett each season since 2009. His bat is pretty much nonexistent; last season for Gwinnett, he hit .185/.235/.222 over 61 games. He's not even an every day catcher down in Gwinnett anymore, splitting time with the host of minor league veterans the team has brought in over the past few seasons. Lately, he's split time with Wilkin Castillo and Clint Sammons, two guys no longer with the organization.
So if he can't hit, what does Boscan add to the organization? Simple: he's an experienced receiver that can help the Braves' young pitching a lot. The 32 year-old isn't a member of the team to get big hits or get on base, he's there to nurture the young pitching. He'll be splitting time in 2012 with Jose Yepez, signed as a minor league free agent this offseason. All of the Braves young catching talent is at the lower levels of the organization, so Boscan likely won't be pushed for a job any time soon. When he decides to retire, he'll probably have a coaching spot in the organization ready to go. But for now, he's just going to chill in AAA, taking care of the oodles of young pitching throughout the system. I don't think it's a bad move at all.
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20 year-old catcher Christian Bethancourt is a tough nut to crack. He's fallen from grace on many prospect lists (dropping to ninth on this year's BA top ten), because he hasn't found consistency hitting, despite playing the 2011 season as a 19 year-old in full season ball. He started the year in Rome, and after a cold spell to start the year, caught fire and finished at .303/.323/.430 before getting called up to Lynchburg, where he finished his year struggling, finishing up at .271/.277/.325.The major demerit on Bethancourt right now is his plate discipline. This season, he walked just 11 times in 410 plate appearances. That's not going to work in the long run, but hopefully, his plate discipline can improve as he ages. His power is also lacking, with a .096 ISO overall. That's also not really going to cut it, but he's still filling out his body, and that can improve with age.
The power question got answered a little bit in the AFL, where Bethancourt OPSed .880 in 74 plate appearances, homering five times (which is how many he hit in the entire regular season) and adding three doubles as well to give him an ISO of .250 in the fall - a massive improvement. But the plate discipline question remained. In those AFL games, Bethancourt walked just twice while striking out 17 times. The walks are consistent with his 2011 regular season totals, while the strikeouts spiked, probably due to Bethancourt attempting to impress and hit the ball more, along with the quality of pitching in the AFL.
There is no need for the Braves to rush Bethancourt, because there is a glut of young catching in the low minors. In addition to Bethancourt, the Braves system features guys like Ryan Delgado and Evan Gattis, both of whom have hit rather well during their careers. I'd personally like to see Bethancourt start the year at Lynchburg in 2012, and if he's able to succeed hitting, he can get promoted to Mississippi, much like the team did with him in 2011. Bethancourt spent all of 2010 in Rome and struggled offensively, and started there in 2011 as well before being promoted once he caught a spark.
I think Bethancourt can be a solid catcher in the bigs, but he needs to continue to develop his power and plate discipline. 2012 will be a big step forward for him, and I'd really like to see him develop his offensive game a little more. If he can do that, he can be a top 100 prospect in 2013.
Check out THT's projection for Bethancourt here
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